Welterweights
Demian Maia (25-9) vs. Lyman Good (20-4)ODDS: Maia (-170), Good (+150)
He has already announced his intention to retire once he finishes out his current contract, but Maia is still getting it done at age 41, and it is worth appreciating his unique career for as long as it lasts. Save for an infamous string of fights at middleweight in which Maia fell in love with his kickboxing, he has been a pure throwback to the early days of the sport, when a pure grappler could enjoy a ton of success. Maia is obviously a Brazilian jiu-jitsu great, but the secret to his success is that he became an excellent wrestler over the years. As the sport evolved past pure submission artists being able to catch their opponents, Maia focused more on control, taking down his opponents and patiently breaking apart their defenses as he worked towards a finish. This became particularly effective once Maia cut down to 170 pounds, where his grappling came with some ridiculous power. He memorably started his welterweight run by squeezing Dong Hyun Kim so hard he caused a muscle spasm and then caused Rick Story’s head to leak like a faucet. It did look like Maia had eventually plateaued after losses to Jake Shields and Rory MacDonald, but he rebounded with seven straight wins -- a streak that eventually led the UFC to give him a welterweight title shot. Unfortunately, it went about as poorly as Maia’s championship fight against Anderson Silva at 185 pounds. Tyron Woodley easily stuffed Maia’s takedowns and kept him at bay, which led to two more losses in similar fashion. The UFC did not do Maia any favors by putting him against strong wrestlers like Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman, as they managed to keep the fight standing and easily win a striking match as younger, fresher fighters. The door is now assuredly closed on Maia becoming a contender once again, but he still has a contract to complete and can still tap most of the welterweight roster.
This is a serious opportunity for Good, an exciting and talented fighter who has seen his UFC career derailed thanks to inactivity. Good was Bellator’s inaugural welterweight champion -- a point UFC President Dana White was all too happy to bring up when he failed to make it into the “The Ultimate Fighter 19” house -- and eventually made his way to the UFC in 2015, stepping in on late notice to score a knockout of Andrew Craig. Then, thanks to injuries and a flagged drug test, Good vanished for about two years, eventually resurfacing with a close loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in an absolute war and a quick knockout of Ben Saunders in his native New York. Good was not on anyone’s radar to get a shot at a Top 15 opponent like Maia, but given his long resume and exciting fight style, it is easy to see why the UFC has given him this opportunity.
There is a cadre of exciting welterweights littering the upper middle tier of the UFC roster, and if the promotion wanted to pluck one to challenge Maia, Good is far from the worst choice. He is an absolutely bricked-up human being, and he has shown some solid wrestling when needed with his charging and powerful style. If a 41-year-old Maia is simply incapable of taking down much stronger athletes anymore, Good is prime candidate to expose it. While Good should be dangerous for as long as this fight stays on the feet, Maia tends to cut to the chase and make sure that does not happen for long. Worse for Good, he has not shown the level of defensive wrestling necessary to keep this standing against an all-time great. The pick is Maia via first-round submission, though Good’s physicality alone could allow him to survive for all 15 minutes.
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