Heavyweights
Andrei Arlovski (27-16, 1 N/C) vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov (18-4)
Odds: Abdurakhimov (-130), Arlovski (+110)
One of the themes of this main card is guys who have had unlikely runs in the UFC, and this recent stint for Andrei Arlovski certainly qualifies. It's been over 12 years since Arlovski lost the UFC heavyweight title to Tim Sylvia and nearly a decade since he was seemingly written off for good, losing four straight fights and suffering brutal knockouts in three of them. From there, Arlovski became an MMA itinerant, but he also seemingly figured out how to adjust to his waning athleticism, only suffering one loss in eight bouts -- and even that saw him last three rounds with Anthony Johnson -- before the UFC surprisingly made the call to bring him back. The Belarusian figured to be roster depth as the UFC expanded internationally and put on a ton more cards, but instead "The Pitbull" put together a four-fight winning streak that saw him become an unlikely title contender. Looking back, a lot of that was fool's gold -- Arlovski knocked out Antonio Silva and Travis Browne just as their careers were falling apart, and wins over Brendan Schaub and Frank Mir were terrible, low-output affairs -- but they earned him enough cachet that the UFC stuck with him through a five-fight losing streak that finally got stopped in November against Junior Albini. From the Albini fight forward, Arlovski's managed to show the most diverse skillset of his career, even as he nears age 40; Arlovski has finally seemed to realize he has two hands rather than just relying on his right and even showed off a solid wrestling game in a March win over Stefan Struve. Arlovski probably doesn't have another run towards title contention left in him, but he's made enough adjustments that he should be able to stick around as a top-25 heavyweight for a few more years.
Arlovski takes on Russia's Shamil Abdurakhimov, who's put together a solid UFC tenure thus far. Abdurakimov's a bear of a man, which makes it a bit surprising once you find out that he mostly fights as a mobile, low-power striker. And for such a large man, he can be overpowered. Tim Johnson did so with ease in Abdurakhimov's UFC debut, and then there was his main event spot against Derrick Lewis. Abdurakhimov was memorably passive in that bout, trying to avoid contact with Lewis wherever possible, and rightfully so; once Lewis was able to get his hands on him, he pounded out the Russian for the finish, reportedly leaving Abdurakhimov with multiple broken bones. At his best, Abdurakhimov can turn things into a low-output slog and win a point kickboxing contest, which frankly isn't that entertaining to watch, but there is some hope he's finding a groove; in his last bout, Abdurakhimov was able to score an impressive knockout of Chase Sherman in just 84 seconds.
This should be a fine fight, if not anything particularly exciting. Arlovski isn't the type of overwhelming athlete or wrestler that can take Abdurakhimov too much out of his game, but he can still keep the Russian on his toes, so I expect a medium-paced striking match that should be entertaining enough to be watchable. I don't think it'll be a blowout, but I trust the improvements Arlovski has shown in the last year, and think he has both the diverse skills and the veteran savvy to win that type of fight against Abdurakhimov. My pick is Arlovski via decision.
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