Preview: UFC Fight Night 135 ‘Gaethje vs. Vick’

Women's Strawweights
Angela Hill (8-4) vs. Cortney Casey-Sanchez (7-6)
Odds: Hill (-135), Casey-Sanchez (+115)

It's been an odd run for Angela Hill. She showed some potential as a power kickboxing prospect on the season of The Ultimate Fighter that effectively launched the UFC's strawweight division, but despite being ridiculously raw, she was rushed into fights with Tecia Torres and Rose Namajunas and subsequently cut. But Hill was able to earn her way back into the UFC in short order after a ridiculously successful 2016, where she reeled off four straight wins in Invicta FC while becoming their strawweight champion. But while Hill's second UFC run has gone much better than the first, she hasn't reached quite the heights that her Invicta run portended; a loss to Jessica Andrade quickly ended any hopes of Hill turning into an immediate contender and a later loss to Nina Ansaroff showed some of the struggles in Hill's game. Essentially, Hill sometimes struggles to balance her mobility and her power; if she stands and plants, quicker opponents can take advantage of her, but as she's incorporated a more movement-heavy style, that's tended to leave her tired in later rounds. A one-sided win over Maryna Moroz in February helped assuage those concerns a bit, but Cortney Casey's a much bigger ask.

Hawaii's Casey-Sanchez is an interesting talent, blending a solid mix of skills while possessing one of the largest frames in the strawweight division. She started her UFC career by losing two fun brawls to Joanne Calderwood and Seo Hee Ham, but those bouts may have overstated Casey's aggressiveness a bit; she's proven to be more of an opportunist in her fights since, and her recent loss to Felice Herrig had a lot of stretches where Casey-Sanchez just looked uncomfortable when presented with the opportunity to lead the fight. Still, her size and horsepower make her dangerous, and wins over Cristina Stanciu and Randa Markos have shown Casey's ability to take over in grappling exchanges despite being a poor wrestler. That poor wrestling defense is probably going to prevent her from ever getting past the divisional elite, and in fact cost Casey-Sanchez her last bout against Michelle Waterson, but shecould easily be coming off three straight wins rather than two straight losses and remains a tricky matchup for almost anyone in the division.

I've gone back and forth on this one, mostly due to Hill's cardio issues; the former Invicta champ might have some success wrestling and probably won't make a big enough mistake for Casey to take the fight over, but Casey could wind up having the bigger moments of the fight and does figure to last better over fifteen minutes. Casey-Sanchez's size and reach alone may be enough to neutralize Hill on the feet and accomplish enough grappling-wise to win rounds, but at the same time, Casey's coming off a fight against Michelle Waterson where she was often a bit too content to work from her back, which cost her that fight. I'll take Hill to take a decision just because I trust her to fight the smarter fight and she's coming off a good performance, but I can't say I feel that confident in the pick.

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