Preview: UFC Fight Night 128 ‘Barboza vs. Lee’

Heavyweights Chase Sherman vs. Justin Willis
Odds: Willis (-350), Sherman (+290)

After starting his big-show career with two losses, Sherman seemed to find his footing in winning two straight in 2017. He still took more punishment than he needed to, particularly against an overmatched and compromised Rashad Coulter, but his unusually high-volume kickboxing was on full display. “The Vanilla Gorilla” moves well and has above-average cardio for a heavyweight, and his low kicks are a favorite and effective weapon. He brutalized Coulter’s and Damian Grabowski’s lead legs while setting them up with multi-punch combinations to the head and body. But the Mississippi native’s head remains painfully stationary when he’s thinking about throwing, which is most of the time. Sherman showed off an outstanding beard in his first several fights, even if Walt Harris did knock him out. He absorbed more than a few heavy shots prior to getting taken out by a thunderous knee, left cross combination.

In his most recent win over Grabowski, though, the Alan Belcher and Mike Winkeljohn student finally seemed to show care for his chin. He patiently picked apart the Pole without getting into a wild brawl. Sherman still absorbed several desperate overhands he didn’t need to but demonstrated improvement nonetheless. Unfortunately, all the accumulated damage of his first four Octagon contests seemed to catch up to him in November, when Shamil Abdurakhimov put him down with a pair of short left hooks in the first round.

That spells bad news against Willis, a hefty man with shockingly fast hands and more attention to defense than your typical heavyweight. “Big Pretty” does an excellent job pulling his head off-line as he fires counters from his southpaw stance. The American Kickboxing Academy product mostly pot-shotted James Mulheron in his debut, but he started putting together combinations against Allen Crowder, mainly 3-2s. Willis complements his hands with quick kicks to the body and inside lead leg of orthodox opponents, racking up points and damage. And so far, Willis has also been the one with the wrestling advantage. He easily took down Mulheron a handful of times and caught Crowder’s kicks, electing to punch rather than dump him. Sherman has 100% takedown defense and has never attempted one himself, so this battle likely plays out standing.

I don’t agree with Willis being such a sizeable favorite; this is mid-level heavyweight MMA we’re talking about, after all. Sherman will get countered, but his combinations might show that Willis still needs to develop his defense beyond slipping the first shot. Still, his quickness, better defense, and Sherman’s accumulated damage are enough to make him a righteous favorite. If Sherman’s chin is cracked, Willis gets him out of there within ten minutes. But I think the more likely scenario given his improvements and athleticism is that Sherman hears the final horn but gets outpointed along the way. Willis by decision is the pick.

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