Preview: UFC Fight Night 124 ‘Stephens vs. Choi’

Women’s Flyweight

Jessica-Rose Clark (8-4, 1 NC) vs. Paige VanZant (7-3)

ODDS: Clark (-110), VanZant (-110)

ANALYSIS: VanZant opened as a slight favorite in this contest before the bets coming in on Clark flipped the line, and that alone speaks volume. Have people abandoned hope on a 23-year-old VanZant this quickly, all for the unforgivable sins of getting thrashed by Rose Namajunas and Michelle Waterson? Or have her public persona and the UFC’s preference for pushing her simply irritated people into thinking she cannot fight?

The size issue will be interesting in this case, not only because VanZant is moving up to 125 pounds but also because Clark is a career bantamweight who checked in at 128 pounds for her late-notice fight with Bec Rawlings in November. VanZant is at her best when she can bully her way into the clinch, swarming on her opponents, throwing them on the ground and attacking as frequently as possible. Is she going to be able to toss around Clark from the clinch, or are we going to see multiple aborted headlock throws here? That is not just a glib joke, either. A blown head-and-arm throw is exactly how she lost so quickly to Waterson.

VanZant thrives when she creates and, more importantly, controls scramble opportunities. She still goes for unsecured positions and rolls all over the place while pounding on grounded opponents. Her striking, if voluminous, still looks awkward even in tight quarters. It may prove helpful that she has focused heavily on her Brazilian jiu-jitsu recently under the tutelage of UFC veteran Fabiano Scherner, but VanZant wins by attrition and fitness, with her technical gaps still exposed. Clark has developed into a very serviceable clinch fighter, but in this case, exposing VanZant is most achievable with heavy circling and relying on her steady right-cross counters on a charging, possibly flailing poster girl.

VanZant’s personality and pampered status may irritate some observers, but it should not distract from the fact that she can actually fight and still has considerable untapped potential. She will likely chase down Clark with her awkward variety of lunging and flying kicks -- do not forget the jumping roundhouse with which she clobbered Rawlings -- and eat a few shots on the way in, but Clark, even if she makes 125 pounds properly, has not had much stopping power traditionally. The question for me is whether VanZant is able to put Clark on the fence with frequency and take her down; I think she can. If Clark cannot keep VanZant off of her, the Australian is going to try to grab a dominant position or submission when VanZant inevitably blows a technique, winds up turtled, gives up her neck, top position or so on. However, I think even if Clark can slow down VanZant inside and stand up off of takedowns, it is more likely that “12 Gauge” keeps firing away in the phone booth and on top. VanZant hammers out a decision victory that, in this UFC world, should get her an instantaneous crack at newly minted women’s flyweight champion Nicco Montano.

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