Welterweight
Tim Means (27-8-1) vs. Belal Muhammad (12-2)ANALYSIS: Muhammad was originally schedule to face “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 25 winner Jesse Taylor in this spot, before “J.T. Money” tested positive for anti-estrogen agent clomiphene and accepted a 12-month USADA ban. In his stead, “Remember the Name” -- owner of perhaps the worst nickname in a sport with nicknames like “The Ho Bag” and “The Math Librarian” -- now faces New Mexico native and all-around nasty dude Means, who took the fight with just over a month to prepare.
Means is much a tougher look for Muhammad than Taylor would have been. Taylor is a superior takedown artist and positional grappler to both men, but Muhammad is a stalwart sprawl-and-brawler; the only takedown he has given up in the UFC was early on in his win over Jordan Mein his last time out, which was more of a surprise reaction for Mein after getting tagged. Muhammad establishes range with his heavy, chopping low kicks and then starts working his jab and lead hook before putting the entire arsenal together. He is becoming increasingly skilled at wearing out opponents on the feet, then taking them down and attacking the back in the bout’s latter stages.
The kicking might have been an issue against Taylor, but against Means, he will have serious heat coming back at him from a 6-foot-2 southpaw with a three-inch reach advantage. Despite his size, Means is also an awesome in-fighter, capable of pounding on a foe from the collar tie with punches and knees or icing them with a single clinch elbow. Yes, Means is a slow starter and Muhammad still may have occasion to test his wrestling defense while trying to initiate successful scrambles. However, the clinch is a much more inhospitable position against Means, who slides up the fence from a takedown attempt and goes right back to landing in close quarters, as he did back in June in his win over Alex Garcia.
Those who have had success against Means have either wrestled him down and held him there or were dynamic enough to exploit his submission defense. While Muhammad has landed at least two takedowns in four or his five UFC bouts, he is not a control freak on top; and the range in which he generates takedowns should allow Means to bust him up inside. Muhammad took a hellacious beating early against Alan Jouban and came back to win Round 3, so he will certainly never stop trying. Still, he will have only a short window of time to kick Means’ skinny leg off before the former King of the Cage champion starts cooking with gas, begins punching and kicking his way inside and beating up the Chicago native. Means on points is the pick, or if the birdie is really dirty, one of those clinch elbows could end it before it reaches the judges.
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