Bantamweight
Rob Font (14-2) vs. Pedro Munhoz (14-2)ANALYSIS: While they will literally share the cage together the figurative place in which Font and Munhoz stand is quite similar. Both men are top 15-ish bantamweights in need of a big, breakthrough win to put them at the forefront of fans’ minds; and they both have identical 14-2 records, to boot. However, it has been a very different journey for the two men en route to this precipice, and the nature of their respective paths shines some light on our likely outcome.
When I saw a 23-year-old Munhoz fighting in Brazil just three bouts into his pro career, I was convinced I was looking at a future champion. Never mind his managerial connections to Jorge Guimaraes and Ed Soares’ Black House, the level of technical maturity and refinement in his game was astonishing. He already looked like he had a template for how he liked to fight, high-level striking techniques that informed it and a sudden, finish-oriented grappling game to supplement it. For the last seven years, Munhoz has essentially been the same fighter -- to a frustrating and often baffling degree. It is not uncommon for young fighters to hit their ceiling early, but when they are already so good at such a young age, what are the odds the ceiling is just above their heads already?
Meanwhile, Font had to piece together a 10-1 record and punch George Roop senseless as a short-notice underdog in July 2014 to land on the MMA radar. Since then, a rash of injuries -- to him and prospective opponents -- has ensured that Font has fought just four times since that debut over three years ago. However, from his December demolition of Matt Schnell to his July dismantling of Douglas Silva de Andrade, the Mark DellaGrotte pupil continues improving with each outing, rounding out his striking game, becoming more effective as both the aggressor and the counterfighter and becoming even better at locking up submissions on foes once he has them hurt.
This dynamic plays out in their actual fights. Sure, Munhoz has only ever lost to top-five bantamweights Raphael Assuncao and Jimmie Rivera, even arguably deserving the nod over the latter. However, he fights up and down to his opponents while letting them force whatever sort of contest they want. If you stand around, Munhoz will slowly advance on you, chopping at your legs. If you want to grapple, “The Young Punisher” is a tenacious scrambler and wields that patented guillotine. Again, though, you get to dictate where the fight goes, as Munhoz never seems to have much interest in actually forcing any sort of strategy, passively reacting to his opponent’s cues as he trots forward.
Font will have a seven-inch reach advantage and will be able to put it to good use and not just behind a range-preserving jab. Owing to his improving combination striking, he can utilize quick counters to set up longer rushes of punches, elbows and especially fine knees. This is exactly the sort of business that gummed up Munhoz against Assuncao, Rivera and even Justin Scoggins, who won Round 1 before succumbing to the guillotine choke. Munhoz eats 5.39 significant strikes per minute, which is not a good number period, let alone for a fighter who is not that bad defensively. A huge part of the problem: While on defense, he spends so much time covering and shelling up instead of responding, and worse, he seems to always eat the tail end of combinations clean and hard. Against a fighter like Font, who ends his striking salvos with real punctuation marks, that is a miserable look.
I do not think Munhoz is a lazy fighter, so I want to avoid making it sound as though this is a case of a fighter taking his own natural skills for granted. Regardless of his ethos in the gym, the Brazilian simply does not “dial in” when it comes to fight time and is endlessly content to let his opponents lead the dance. That is the wrong sort of strategy for an increasingly effective Font, who showed an outstanding ability to take damage in his loss to John Lineker. Unless Munhoz finds a way to snatch another guillotine finish, Font will bolster the adage that hard work beats talent when talent does not work hard, winning a decision.
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