Preview: UFC 301 ‘Pantoja vs. Erceg’

Light Heavyweights

Vitor Petrino (11-0, 4-0 UFC) vs. #10 LHW | Anthony Smith (37-19, 12-9 UFC)

ODDS: Petrino (-520), Smith (+390)

It is time once again for Smith to separate the wheat from the chaff at 205 pounds. Smith’s had an interesting ride, taking about a decade to become an overnight sensation. A solid but unremarkable middleweight in the UFC for a few years prior, Smith moved up to light heavyweight in 2018 and immediately charged up to contender status, earning a fight with Jon Jones in less than nine months. That shot at Jones didn’t go particularly well for “Lionheart,” but a rebound win over Alexander Gustafsson proved that he’d be an ongoing concern in the light heavyweight division, which has held true in the years since. Smith has racked up enough losses at this point that a march back to title contention is unlikely, but he’s settled in as someone who can separate potential title contenders from the light heavyweight rank and file. Even if Smith’s role in the division is clear at this point, he’s still a bit hard to parse as a fighter. He can hold his own anywhere and has finishing ability in all phases. However, his emotional approach to fighting means he usually needs to reach his breaking point before things kick into high gear, whether that’s Smith staging a comeback or just simply breaking. That makes for a fascinating matchup against a top prospect in Petrino, particularly given the Brazilian’s last performance.

Petrino’s a fairly typical light heavyweight prospect who gets by on physicality, though he’s at least shown some optionality in his UFC career thus far. Primarily a knockout artist prior to his UFC debut, Petrino’s mixed in a surprisingly effective wrestling and grappling game to wear down opponents inside the Octagon. A lot of Petrino’s approach hinges on pressuring his opponents and seeing what shakes out, and despite some messy showings, the end result has usually been a violent finish in his favor. That made it a surprise when his March win over Tyson Pedro was a lukewarm performance where Petrino never hit a second gear against an opponent who usually fades over time. Petrino has the power necessary to crack Smith and send things careening towards a finish, but it’s unclear if he has the aggression and the technical depth to actually get the former title challenger out of there. If Petrino’s going to just fight at a slow pace and let “Lionheart” hang around, it’s easy to see Smith dragging him into a nip-tuck fight where it feels like the Brazilian let one slip away. The longtime veteran seems worth the flier here, even if it could be an ugly fight. The pick is Smith via decision.

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Pantoja vs. Erceg
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The Prelims