Preview: UFC 296 ‘Edwards vs. Covington’

Welterweights

#5 WW | Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0, 5-0 UFC) vs. #6 WW | Stephen Thompson (17-6-1, 12-6-1 UFC)

ODDS: Rakhmonov (-550), Thompson (+410)

Things may yet go haywire, but Rakhmonov seems inevitable as a future welterweight title contender. Kazakhstan’s “Nomad” came up the regional ranks with a bullying approach, and it was unclear how much of that would translate up to the UFC level. However, once Rakhmonov manhandled Alex Oliveira in his UFC debut, it became clear he was an immediate threat to the rest of the division. Wins over Michel Prazeres and Carlston Harris also came without issue—he also showed some effective striking against Harris—and Rakhmonov’s rise has been fairly clean since, with the only issue being inactivity; that has been partially due to a lack of willing opponents. Neil Magny is typically the litmus test to see if opponents are ready to join the welterweight elite, and Rakhmonov ran through him without much issue; and while Geoff Neal had his moments, clipping Rakhmonov a few times and making him look mortal, the end result was a third-round submission victory for the undefeated Kill Cliff Fight Club rep.

Thompson is an interesting next test. Even though “Wonderboy” has clearly lost a step from his prime, he is still a highly effective fighter who cannot be beaten through sheer aggression. Thompson’s career might be a bit underrated at this point. The karate stylist had an impressive rise through the ranks with some outstanding knockouts, but two terrible title fights against Tyron Woodley where neither man gave the other much with which to work effectively shut the door on Thompson’s championship window despite a soft landing in the six years since. Thompson has not been particularly active but did well enough at sending rising contenders back down the welterweight ladder for a few years—up until a rough 2021, which affirmed he was no longer at his peak. Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad were each able to neutralize Thompson with wrestling-heavy game plans, an approach the South Carolinian had successfully been able to stay ahead of for years prior. Kevin Holland did not have much interest in wrestling during what turned out to be an entertaining Thompson win about a year ago. However, it appears Thompson might be set for another rough night at the office in his return. Rakhmonov might need some time to figure Thompson out, but he does seem to gain momentum as his fights go on. While Thompson should still be the faster fighter, Rakhmonov is absolutely massive for the division, which should allow him to effectively close distance and get his clinch and wrestling games going at some point during the fight. Add in that the Kazakh fighter has the combination of size and skill on the mat to both control Thompson and end the fight once things get there, and this could come to a sudden end once it turns in Rakhmonov’s favor. The pick is Rakhmonov via third-round submission.

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Edwards vs. Covington
Pantoja vs. Royval
Rakhmonov vs. Thompson
Pimblett vs. Ferguson
The Prelims