Fight OddsLight Heavyweights
#2 LHW | Magomed Ankalaev (17-1-1, 9-1-1 UFC) vs. #7 LHW | Johnny Walker (21-7, 7-4 UFC)ODDS: Ankalaev (-355), Walker (+280)
Ankalaev should remain a going concern in the light heavyweight title picture for years to come, but there is still some concern about his recent performances. Ankalaev came to the UFC in 2018 seemingly readymade to charge his way to contention, particularly standing out as a brutal ground-and-pound artist. Indeed, all of Ankalaev’s wares were on his display during his UFC debut, an extended three-round beating of Paul Craig—up until the point that “Bearjew” clamped down on a triangle choke in the closing seconds of the fight and earned a miracle tap with just one second remaining. Since then, Ankalaev has excised most of the aggression out of his game, which worked well enough during his rise to contention. The Russian could still handle his own against most opponents as a patient striker, and his wrestling has proven to be a solid escape valve, as needed. Now that Ankalaev has hit title contender status, he has not exactly risen to the occasion. Ankalaev did not press much of anything in what was a clear but interminable win over Thiago Santos, and his caution came back to bite him horribly in a December fight against Jan Blachowicz for the vacant light heavyweight title. It took Ankalaev until the fourth round to seemingly rediscover his wrestling, but the preceding three rounds of relatively even striking led to the fight ending in a draw despite the Russian’s late-round domination. If Ankalaev can get through whatever mental block has been tamping down his aggression, he is a clear championship-level fighter and perhaps the best fighter in the division. Until then, he remains hard to fully trust, even in what should be a winnable fight against Walker.
Walker has seemingly been on his own mental rollercoaster for the last few years, though it does seem like the Brazilian has made it through the worst part of what has been a rough transition. Expectations were not high for Walker upon his UFC debut in 2018, but he became the division’s hottest prospect in just four months. A behemoth at 6-foot-6, Walker showed some strange charisma while quickly knocking out Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunov; the last of those outings saw Walker injure himself during his post-fight celebration. From there, Walker was consistently inconsistent, throwing out wild offense that either worked immediately or quickly got him into trouble, but he was at least reliably one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster—until his 2021 main event against Santos. Walker had spent the past year on the shelf due to injury, during which time he went through a litany of personal and professional changes, and the Santos fight saw him clearly overcompensate for his prior issues. Walker’s wildness was now gone, replaced with a range-heavy approach centered around a ton of feints but little actual offense, resulting in his getting little done as he coasted to a loss. Walker looked in similarly ineffective form before getting knocked out by Jamahal Hill, and his two bounce-back wins were a bit hard to parse, as he mostly just took advantage of opponents who immediately put themselves in poor positions. A May win over Anthony Smith was finally a cause for optimism. It was not an exciting fight, but Walker effectively leveraged his frame in keeping a solid opponent at bay. There is still the sense that Walker’s game can be blown completely open by an aggressive opponent, but relatively few of those fighters exist at light heavyweight, and it does not look like that list includes Ankalaev after the Russian’s last few showings. If Ankalaev comes into this fight determined to look for his wrestling, he can likely end this within a round, but all signs point to his being a willing participant in a slow-paced kickboxing match that Walker might actually be able to squeak out on the scorecards. Ankalaev is still the clear favorite as a solid striker in his own right with an ace in the hole if he chooses to use it, but this is a dicier fight than it should be. The pick is Ankalaev via decision.
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