Preview: UFC 292 ‘Sterling vs. O’Malley’

Welterweights

#13 WW | Ian Garry (12-0, 5-0 UFC) vs. #11 WW | Neil Magny (28-10, 21-9 UFC)

ODDS: Garry (-485), Magny (+370)

Garry came into the UFC in 2021 as one of the top prospects in the sport, and the Irishman has clearly lived up to the hype nearly two years later. “The Future” had essentially proven everything he could on the regional scene despite his youth, but his UFC debut did prove there were still some issues to iron out defensively. Jordan Williams clipped Garry through sheer aggression, but a negative still turned into a positive as he was able to survive through adversity and return fire with an eventual knockout. Garry’s next two fights did not have anywhere near that amount of drama, as he put on poised performances that led him to decision wins without much issue, and his March clash Kenan Song was generally the same as the Williams win. Garry got stunned by a power puncher while pursuing his own offense but otherwise looked great and came back to score a finish of his own. A May bout against Daniel Rodriguez figured to put Garry in the first consistent adversity of his career, but the 25-year-old instead met the moment with the best performance of his career, taking just three minutes to set up a brutal head kick that got the ball rolling towards a knockout. Garry called out a perennial gatekeeper to the elite in Magny in his post-fight interview, and after a late opponent change, that is exactly the fight he gets three months later.

Magny may have ridden his way to relevance on sheer volume of fights rather than any one statement win, but his last decade of work is essentially a statement in itself. Everyone who has beaten Magny in recent years is some sort of standout at welterweight, and a number of solid veterans and top prospects have gotten turned back in disheartening fashion. Magny’s approach is both a simple proposition and tricky for his opponents, using his length to frustrate them from range in the hopes that they will look to close distance, at which point “The Haitian Sensation” slows things to a crawl with a punishing clinch game. Opponents who can dominate Magny in one phase or another can tear him apart, and even then, he can often lead them into some baffling decisions that allow him to eke out a win. While Garry does not look to have the intersection of power and aggression that marks Magny’s worst showings, there is a lot here to suggest he can coast to an easy win in this particular matchup. Garry has shown enough in-fight intelligence to give him the benefit of the doubt that he will stay out of Magny’s clinch, even beyond considering that he has the size to neutralize “The Ultimate Fighter 16” semifinalist’s typical advantages from range. Add in that Magny is not the type of knockout threat that can make Garry definitively pay for any defensive lapses, and this should be yet another showing that gets everyone excited about the top prospect. The pick is Garry via decision.

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Sterling vs. O’Malley
Zhang vs. Lemos
Garry vs. Magny
Blackshear vs. Bautista
Vera vs. Munhoz
The Prelims