Preview: UFC 269 ‘Oliveira vs. Poirier’

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Welterweights

#14 WW | Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-4, 10-3 UFC) vs. #12 WW | Geoff Neal (13-4, 5-2 UFC)

ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-125), Neal (+105)

Perhaps Ponzinibbio has not missed his window to make some noise as a welterweight title contender. The Argentinian had a decent enough start to his UFC career, with a win over Sean Strickland aging particularly well, but split his first four bouts and seemed to be slotting in as a mid-tier action fighter. However, after a 2015 victory over Andreas Stahl, the “Argentine Dagger” just kept winning, with a 2017 main event victory over Gunnar Nelson serving as Ponzinibbio’s breakout. At his best, Ponzinibbio has a quick and versatile striking game that is beautiful to watch, as he showed in his career highlight thus far—a fourth-round knockout of Neil Magny that headlined the UFC’s first card in Argentina. That performance figured to be a launchpad to true title contention and some regional star potential, but instead, Ponzinibbio completely dropped off the radar, missing all of 2019 and 2020 with a litany of injuries that included a severe staph infection and COVID-19. Frankly, Ponzinibbio looked terrible in his return fight against Jingliang Li in January before getting knocked out, but after a slow start against Miguel Baeza in June, Ponzinibbio managed to bite down and win one of the better fights of the year. Ponzinibbio still looked diminished, but at this point of his career, it is time to make a run up the ladder and hope for the best, and he gets a shot to make a statement here against Neal.

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One of the standouts of the first season of Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017, Neal quickly made a name for himself upon hitting the Octagon proper, starting his UFC career by blowing out Brian Camozzi and scoring a brutal knockout win over Frank Camacho. That paved the way for a breakout 2019 campaign for “Handz of Steel.” After kicking off the year with an impressive decision win over Belal Muhammad, he flashed his action-hero credentials in prominent bouts against Niko Price and Mike Perry, winning both via knockout. Like Ponzinibbio, Neal had his potential star turn delayed due to medical issues. While training for a bout against Magny, Neal suffered a severe infection that sent him into septic shock. He recovered enough to fight by the end of the year, but he had little to offer against Stephen Thompson, who kept Neal at a distance for the better part of five rounds. Neal then had almost the opposite problem against Magny, as he was dragged into a clinch-heavy affair that saw him lose due to a lack of output. Neal still has a bright future, though there are some worries in the short term, as he spent part of Thanksgiving in jail due to charges of DUI and unlawful possession of a firearm. Assuming he comes in approaching something like his usual form, he should be able to secure a win. These two men figure to meet each other head-on for better or for worse, and Neal appears to be both the harder shot-for-shot puncher and more able to implement his wrestling as a safety valve. If Ponzinibbio winds up rediscovering some of his sharper form, this would be a perfect time for that to happen. The vibes are not great, but the pick is Neal via second-round stoppage.

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