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Welterweights
#5 WW | Michael Chiesa (18-4, 11-4 UFC) vs. #6 WW | Vicente Luque (20-7-1, 13-3 UFC)ODDS: Chiesa (-110), Luque (-110)
Rising welterweight contenders collide for what should be an entertaining fight. For Chiesa, the move up to welterweight has been a godsend, allowing him to break through to a new level of success in his career. Chiesa rode an emotional story arc on “The Ultimate Fighter” to fan favorite status, and he had the results as a lightweight to back it up. Despite seemingly getting by on little but an aggressive submission-hunting style, “Maverick” made it work, with a 2016 submission win over Beneil Dariush continuing to age well. However, the Dariush win gave way to a rash of injuries and two losses inside the cage, so Chiesa began his move up to 170 pounds at the tail end of 2018. Wins over Carlos Condit and Diego Sanchez did not say much, but a January 2020 victory over Rafael dos Anjos announced Chiesa as a potential contender to watch in his new weight class. After a five-round domination of Neil Magny in January, it has become apparent that while Chiesa’s overall approach has not changed much, the additional muscle and strength he can pack on as a welterweight—along with better cardio—makes him a fearsome physical force to deal with.
Luque is going to meet that force head-on, because that is what he does. The Westwood, New Jersey, native was well-regarded coming off his own season of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2015, but a middling pre-UFC resume did not portend much success, making it a pleasant surprise when “The Silent Assassin” proved to be both a potential contender and one of the most consistently entertaining fighters on the UFC roster. Luque’s style is built around pressure and offense. At first, that led to his simply overwhelming the lower reaches of the UFC roster, but as Luque has fought better-regarded competition, it has turned all of his fights into absolute wars. His durability borders on inhuman at this point, given that he never truly lets his opponents out of the fight due to his lack of defense. Plus, he has faced ridiculously hard hitters like Mike Perry and Niko Price and continued to charge through their offense. On paper, this trade should not work in Luque’s favor, but he is a truly unique specimen in terms of his ability to absorb damage and inflict volume in return. In the last four years, only Stephen Thompson has been able to outmaneuver him, and even that came in a violent affair. Luque has now won three straight and nine of his last 10. Add in his action credentials, and a win here puts him firmly in title contention.
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For as fascinating a fight as this is on paper, it essentially hinges on one dynamic. As with most Chiesa fights, this basically comes down to whether he can overpower and outgrapple his opponent. If Chiesa proves to be strong enough to tie up with Luque and bully him around, that is essentially the fight. Even if Luque can consistently get out of danger and separate from Chiesa, his straight-ahead approach will give the American opportunity after opportunity to repeat the process and control the terms of the fight. However, if Luque can turn things around and prevent Chiesa from even initiating that phase, this is all one-way traffic for the Cerrado MMA product. While Chiesa has improved as a striker, he is still not particularly defensively sound and should get chopped down by Luque’s diverse arsenal and consistent aggression. This is basically a coinflip on paper. In practice, this could turn into a bit of a blowout, though exactly in whose favor seems unclear until these two lock horns inside the cage. The pick is Luque via decision.
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