Preview: UFC 254 ‘Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje’

Heavyweights

Alexander Volkov (31-8) vs. Walt Harris (13-8)

ODDS: Volkov (-170), Harris (+150)

At 31 years of age, there is still plenty of time for Volkov to climb his way back towards a heavyweight title shot, but a dominant loss to Curtis Blaydes in June means the Russian will have to settle into a spoiler role for now. Volkov has been able to leverage his physical gifts into an effective approach. Blessed with a 6-foot-7 frame, “Drago” is often quite successful at keeping his opponents at bay. However, even in the rare moments when he has found himself in trouble, Volkov’s combination of durability and an impressive gas tank is usually enough to outlast his opponents and take over. Unfortunately for Volkov, that was not the case against Derrick Lewis in 2018. Volkov was seemingly on his way to a lopsided win and a potential title shot with about a minute left in the fight, but Lewis instead pounced on an opportunity for a knockout and launched himself into immortality with his post-fight interview. That has left Volkov somewhat rudderless in the years since. A late-notice fight against Greg Hardy resulted in a win that did not do much to elevate Volkov’s stock, and Blaydes was about the worst stylistic matchup possible for him. It usually is not much of a concern at heavyweight, but Volkov is not much of a defensive wrestler, which made him a sitting duck for the strongest parts of Blaydes’ game. While Volkov has age on his side, he would be well-served to earn a win here against Harris to help remind people why he remains a heavyweight to watch.

Harris’ story is a combination of professional success and personal tragedy. As a fighter, “The Big Ticket” always had the athleticism to impress, but it was never a guarantee that he would put things together enough to succeed. In fact, Harris even washed out of the UFC briefly in 2014 before getting re-signed as an injury replacement. After losing his return bout to Soa Palelei, Harris had a year-plus layoff that he apparently put to good use, as he scored a quick knockout of Cody East and has not looked back since. After a few more fights to establish himself as a fun knockout artist, a 2018 win over Daniel Spitz started a four-fight unbeaten streak that saw Harris become a legitimate contender. The last two bouts in that streak also saw Harris turn another corner. While he could occasionally be lulled into slow-paced striking matches, fights against Sergey Spivak and Alexey Oleynik saw Harris get immediately to work, scoring two knockouts in a combined 62 seconds. That set up Harris for his first UFC main event in December against Alistair Overeem, but that was where things took a tragic turn, as he was forced to pull out of the fight due to the kidnapping and murder of his stepdaughter. Harris has done an amazing job in the face of adversity, as he has been open about his struggles and eventually made a comeback in May, where he lost to Overeem in an emotional, back-and-forth affair. He will certainly be the sentimental favorite once again, even if the UFC has given him another tough matchup.

Harris has a chance, particularly if he gets off to the quick start that has marked most of his fights. While Volkov is durable, Harris has a combination of speed, power and aggression that might make him the most uniquely dangerous of the Russian’s UFC opponents. However, that is essentially Harris’ entire window. While Harris can come close to matching Volkov in terms of size, the Russian is the much more reliable boxer, along with having his usual durability and cardio advantages. A Harris upset would not be a shock, but it is a difficult needle to thread, given that he needs to connect against Volkov and do enough to knock out the typically durable former Bellator MMA champion. Add in the downside risk of that approach, as Harris will likely tire himself out if he chases a finish that he cannot get, and there is simply too much in Volkov’s favor to pick against him. The pick is Volkov via decision.

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