Heavyweights
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (10-1) vs. Junior dos Santos (21-7)After UFC 252, the heavyweight title picture will likely involve some combination of Stipe Miocic, Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis, and the bad news for dos Santos is that he has clear losses to the first three in his last handful of fights. However, this is not the first time that dos Santos has been without a clear path to title contention, and “Cigano” always seems to find enough wins to get himself back in the mix. His trilogy of title fights with Cain Velasquez did certainly take a lot out of him—dos Santos looked diminished in his return fight, a win over Miocic—but the Brazilian’s steady boxing game is still enough to take out most heavyweight opponents, and that earlier win over Miocic did allow him to essentially jump the line and get a rematch once the latter won heavyweight gold. That resulted in a loss to a Miocic now firmly in his prime, but dos Santos spent the next few fights reminding everyone just how effective he can be, with main event wins over Lewis, Blagoy Ivanov and Tai Tuivasa. That suddenly put dos Santos within spitting distance of title contention, but the issue has been getting over that last hump. Ngannou knocked him out in short order, and his last bout was an odd affair against Blaydes, as dos Santos was so focused on stopping the takedown that he got beaten up on the feet for his efforts. Dos Santos now gets back on the horse in pursuit of another run up the heavyweight ladder, and that starts here against Rozenstruik.
Rozenstruik was one of the UFC’s breakout fighters of 2019, as he was an unknown late replacement upon his debut earlier in the year and was a title contender by the time December rolled around. Suriname’s “Bigi Boy” did not exactly have the most promising start in that debut, as Albini outwrestled him for the better part of a round before Rozenstruik sprang into action for a quick knockout in the second round. However, it soon became apparent that Rozenstruik did not need much of a window to put out someone’s lights. He blasted Allen Crowder in just nine seconds, then took out Andrei Arlovski in the first real exchange of their fight. As for Rozenstruik’s breakout victory at the end of the year against Alistair Overeem? A win is a win. Overeem seemed set to cruise to a lackluster decision win after 25 minutes, but Rozenstruik closed out strong and somehow managed to end the fight with just four seconds to go. While Rozenstruik’s sprint up the ranks ended in May against Ngannou, at least it ended quickly and in the most heavyweight way possible, as Ngannou abandoned all pretenses of technical striking and just overwhelmed Rozenstruik with winging powerful shots. Even with how that fight ended, Rozenstruik has shown enough to demonstrate that he can take advantage of opportunities in fight-ending fashion, and he is still a neophyte for the division at just 32 years old. He will probably remain a fixture at heavyweight for years to come, but a win here would do a lot towards getting things going a bit sooner.
In any other division, this would be an easy call for dos Santos since the former champion is the quicker fighter and steady enough to keep Rozenstruik at bay for 15 minutes. However, as Rozenstruik has shown, he only needs one good shot to suddenly end the fight, and dos Santos is certainly at the point where one good crack is enough to put out his lights. That may make Rozenstruik the smarter pick, but between how committed to inactivity he was against Overeem and the Ngannou loss raising some concerns about his flat-footed approach, it is hard to pull the trigger. The pick, albeit a tenuous one, is dos Santos via decision.
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