Welterweights
Ben Askren (19-0) vs. Jorge Masvidal (33-13)ODDS: Askren (-260), Masvidal (+220)
Maybe this time around we can get some answers about Askren. He ran through Bellator MMA with his relentless wrestling game, but after getting the cold shoulder from the UFC, the “Funky” one took his talents to Asia, content to beat overwhelmed competition in One Championship while sniping at UFC management from afar. It was always an open question about how Askren’s skills would play in the Octagon, but after his 2017 retirement, it looked like it would go down as a huge what if. However, things eventually opened up for Askren to finally make his way to the UFC, and he has proven to be a surprisingly natural fit, as his style of trash talk has been enough to at least get people interested. Askren made his UFC debut in March against Robbie Lawler, and it is hard to glean much from that fight that was not already known. Askren nearly got knocked out in seconds before managing to recover and lean on his wrestling, but an early referee stoppage thanks to an oddly-placed bulldog choke ended the fight before the situation fully played out. A win is a win to an extent, but it was not exactly the springboard to a title shot for which some were hoping. Instead, Askren faces another tough veteran in Masvidal.
Masvidal has been a frustrating talent over the years, but it looks like he might finally be clicking at a near-championship level. After brawling in backyards and trotting the globe, Masvidal settled in Strikeforce and the UFC, where his game always felt like less than the sum of its parts. Masvidal has always had excellent boxing and excellent submission skills, but in fight after fight, he was more than content to take his foot off the gas once he felt he was firmly in control, even after that tendency cost him one split decision after another. A narrow 2015 loss to Al Iaquinta was the last straw in convincing Masvidal to change; however, he ran into the same problem with back-to-back losses in his return to welterweight. A 2017 sparking of Donald Cerrone seemed to point him in the right direction, but by the end of the year, Masvidal saw his momentum turn just as quickly, as another narrow loss to Demian Maia squashed his title aspirations. In his next appearance, “Gamebred” could not get much done while Stephen Thompson picked him apart from range. After taking off all of 2018, Masvidal returned to take on Darren Till and suddenly looked to be in career-best form. Not content to coast, Masvidal kept bringing the fight, and the payoff was a brutal second-round knockout that ranks among the year’s best. This could finally be the turnaround for one of the sport’s action heroes, or it could just be another false start.
The dynamic here is simple: Either Askren outwrestles Masvidal for 15 minutes or fails to do so and probably gets knocked out in the process. Masvidal’s past problem involves matching whatever his opponent gives him and making fights way too close, but that has always applied more to his striking than his grappling. On the mat, Masvidal will either work for submissions or work to get out of his opponent’s control, and that has gone surprisingly well. Against Maia, probably the closest analogue for this fight, Masvidal nearly took the win by repeatedly escaping danger, getting back to his feet and tagging the Brazilian. With Masvidal being far tougher than the vast majority of Askren’s opponents, it is difficult not to see a similar dynamic play out. Askren should be relentless with his wrestling, but if Masvidal can keep this standing for any length of time, it should go terribly for the four-time NCAA All-American, particularly since “Gamebred” now looks more willing to press his advantages on the feet. The pick is Masvidal via second-round knockout.
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