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Welterweights

Robbie Lawler (28-12) vs. Ben Askren (18-0)

ODDS: Askren (-290), Lawler (+245)

Askren is finally in the UFC, so the time has come to answer some questions. The feud between Askren and the UFC has been well-documented. Askren ran through Bellator MMA’s welterweight scene with little more than his excellent wrestling game before fighting out his contract in 2013. However, due to a combination of not wanting to legitimize Bellator and just plain not liking Askren, the UFC essentially passed on making him an offer, leading him to One Championship, where he ran through overmatched competition before retiring in 2017. Now, Askren is back and, thanks to a trade of sorts for Demetrious Johnson, shockingly in the UFC despite sniping at the company from afar for the last few years. Frankly, the gimmick has held up better than expected, as Askren still continues to needle UFC President Dana White even while being under his employ. As far as inside the cage goes, it has been a point of conversation for years about how well Askren would do in the UFC. While he is completely one-dimensional -- his striking remains terrible -- there is also the fact that nobody has been able to stand up to his wrestling game, as he has essentially been able to end every round as soon as he gets the first takedown. A decade into his career, Askren finally gets the chance to make up for lost time and prove he has always been among the top welterweights in the world, as he gets thrown right into the deep end against Lawler.

It has been a few years, so everyone has mentally adjusted, but it is still worth it to step back and appreciate Lawler’s unlikely resurgence. A violence hero in the earlier days of the UFC and in EliteXC, Lawler looked absolutely done after a flat middleweight stint in Strikeforce. However, after a return to the welterweight division and the UFC, Lawler became first an unlikely contender and then an unlikely champion, edging Johny Hendricks in one of the best fights of 2014. His reign only had two successful defenses, but it still deserves to be talked about in reverent tones, as those two fights against Rory MacDonald and Carlos Condit stand as two of the best championship bouts in UFC history. However, since losing the strap to Tyron Woodley, it has been a clear decline for Lawler. He has remained fairly inactive, and while he has still shown off his elite ability to process information and adjust as the fight goes on, his last appearance against Rafael dos Anjos was the first fight in a while where Lawler began to look slow. At 36 and after nearly two decades of being one of the most violent men in a violent sport, Lawler is almost surely done as a true contender. Yet he remains ridiculously dangerous and represents a strong challenge for Askren.

It is a pretty simple fight to break down: Either Askren gets this to the mat or he gets annihilated. The former is more likely, as Lawler’s takedown defense has never been at an elite level, and that is probably what it will take to keep things standing against Askren, a four-time NCAA All-American, two-time national champion and onetime Olympian. Askren is firmly in his mid-30s, so it is entirely possible that he has lost a step over the last year-plus, but this will probably be 15 minutes of control wrestling, with Lawler using his veteran craft to survive. The pick is Askren via decision.

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