Welterweights
Carlos Condit (30-12) vs. Michael Chiesa (14-4)Advertisement
Whenever Chiesa loses, it puts into stark contrast the impressive nature of his successes since, on paper, his game should not work all that well. Sikjitsu catches a lot of flak for the limited, defensively open way it trains its fighters to strike, and Chiesa serves as a clear example. He has a few decent fundamentals but finds himself out of his depth against better competition, particularly thanks to some porous defense. Where Chiesa shines is as a particularly venomous grappler. He is not even necessarily the greatest wrestler, but whenever his fights hit the mat, Chiesa has an innate ability to find his opponent’s back and latch on a rear-naked choke. A 2016 submission win over Beneil Dariush -- particularly impressive given Dariush’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree -- put Chiesa on the fringes of contender status, but the ensuing two-plus years have not gone swimmingly. Recurring back injuries and Conor McGregor’s bus attack have kept Chiesa on the shelf; worse, he has suffered two losses when healthy, getting outworked by Kevin Lee and picked apart by Anthony Pettis. Chiesa has been a massive lightweight, so after missing weight for the Pettis fight, it was a natural move to head up to 170 pounds in search of a new start. Welcoming him is Condit, who appears ready for a new start of his own.
For years, Condit has been one of the premier bringers of violence in the entire sport, and it appears his UFC 195 title fight against Robbie Lawler was his last hurrah. That fight was an absolute war that ranks among the best fights of the decade, but it also seems to have taken the last bit out of Condit that he could afford. Demian Maia ran through Condit in his next fight -- there was no shame in that, given Maia’s strong wrestling and the fact that defensive grappling has always been a problem for the “Natural Born Killer” -- but everything after that sent out some pretty bad vibes. Condit teased retirement, came back over a year later and just looked flat against Neil Magny. He was not terrible, but the New Mexico native no longer had the second gear of violence that would allow him to take over a fight. It was much the same issue last time out against Alex Oliveira: Condit did well for a while, but once Oliveira found a groove and turned up the heat, the former World Extreme Cagefighting champion was no longer able to keep up. Condit is not in the zone where everyone should be worried for his health every time out, but at this point, it remains unclear what he is really able to accomplish going forward.
If this stays on the feet, Chiesa is the type of limited non-athlete that Condit should still be able to piece up, but therein lies the rub. Chiesa is more than willing to try and take a fight to the mat. Maia is an exceptional wrestler and made beating Condit look easy. Grappling defense has always been Condit’s problem, so even if it takes a few attempts, Chiesa should eventually be able to find his neck without much trouble. It is Chiesa’s one path to victory, but one upon which he figures to capitalize. The pick is Chiesa via first-round submission.
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