Preview: UFC 226 ‘Miocic vs. Cormier’

Welterweights
Paul Felder (15-3) vs. Mike Perry (11-3)
Odds: Felder (-155), Perry (+135)

This is a weird fight, the result of both men’s original opponents pulling out or being reassigned. Yancy Medeiros was supposed to battle Perry this weekend but fell out due to injury, and Felder’s foe, James Vick, got tabbed to face Justin Gaethje next month to replace Al Iaquinta. So Felder moves up a week and up a weight class to battle Perry. “Platinum” has been on a skid of late, losing back to back bouts to Santiago Ponzinibbio and Max Griffin, derailing his once hurtling hype train. These losses were the product of several factors. One, Perry was fighting far too often, as the UFC trotted out their new, exciting fan favorite as often as possible, running him into the ground in the process. Even his wins were not easy fights. Second, both Ponzinibbio and Griffin refused to stand in front of Perry, but more than that, they switched up their lateral movement and feinted to stop his forward pressure. Danny Roberts and Alan Jouban continually circled the same way, allowing Perry to continue to march in the same direction as he followed them. He couldn’t do that in his last two fights, so he struggled to plant his feet and throw, becoming much less dangerous. And finally, both Ponzinibbio and Griffin are hitters at welterweight, so their counter combinations hurt and bloodied Perry, earning his respect. He couldn’t fly after them recklessly like he did to the last short-notice lightweight he fought, Alex Reyes.

It is this last point in particular I am concerned Felder will not be able to replicate. Perry last fought barely four months ago, so he’s probably still too active. Felder doesn’t typically get on his bike, as he’s more of a boxer-puncher who isn’t afraid to trade or look for a big counter. He is light on his feet but stays right at the end of boxing range most of the time. But he should be able to stick and move as a taekwondo and karate black belt. Plus, the blueprint has been set on how to beat Perry at this point. Felder has lately had success using his knees in the clinch and his elbows on the mat, but attempting to tangle with the beastly Perry in those spots seems like a losing battle. Perry, who recently moved to train at Jackson-Wink, is difficult to take down and even harder to hold down. So Felder will have to earn Perry’s respect when the “Platinum” one lunges forward with his overhand right and left hook. Felder can crack at lightweight, but I’m concerned that Perry’s shots move the Roufusport standout and push him out of position to counter effectively. But I also don’t have a lot of faith in Perry at this point, whose progress seems to have stagnated, making him predictable. I will tentatively take Felder to outpoint Perry and take a decision.

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