Preview: UFC 218 ‘Holloway vs. Aldo 2’

Flyweight

Henry Cejudo (11-2) vs. Sergio Pettis (16-2)

ODDS: Cejudo (-300), Pettis (+250)

ANALYSIS: Pettis’ unanimous decision over a red-hot Brandon Moreno in Mexico City in August showed how far “The Phenom” has come since his UFC debut four years ago, but it also revealed many of the prevailing tendencies that figure to present trouble against Cejudo.

The Moreno win was Pettis’ fourth straight and one in which he showed great conditioning and a deft, controlling jab. It was also a fight where he gave up an early takedown, had his back taken and needed to fight off a rear-naked choke; he then wound up on the mat against a desperate Moreno in the fifth round while he was soundly ahead. The Rofusport product will have five inches of reach on the stout, short-limbed Cejudo, but how well he can utilize it and his rangier weapons remains a major question.

Prior to his September knockout of Wilson Reis, a respected veteran he blew away with massively improved boxing in less than six minutes, Cejudo has never seemed like a natural MMA striker. Even so, he always managed to utilize a high volume of kicks and short punches to close the distance and snatch the clinch. As you might expect from an Olympic freestyle wrestling gold medalist, the 30-year-old has superb reflexes and timing, allowing him to duck and pounce behind combinations or as soon as his opponent attacks or reacts. Pettis will need to constantly be on his bike while striking to avoid the combo-clinch tactics of Cejudo, and he must be judicious in his kicking attack, as well, lest he get dumped.

Outside of his December 2014 promotional debut against Dustin Kimura, Cejudo has taken down all of his UFC opponents, even flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson, who kneed out his guts in less than three minutes. It seems unlikely that Pettis avoids that fate for at least two rounds, especially if Cejudo’s boxing game continues to show progress. It will not make up for the fact that Cejudo recently lost his gold medal and suffered burns to his right foot while escaping from Northern California’s deadly wildfires in October, but he earns a unanimous decision and another top-10 victory here.

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