Preview: UFC 188 ‘Velasquez vs. Werdum’

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Nate Marquardt (33-14-2, 11-7 UFC) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (10-1, 5-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: “The Ultimate Fighter” winner Gastelum’s star has dimmed following a horrendous weight cut, brief hospitalization and the ill-advised decision to go ahead and fight Tyron Woodley at UFC 183, which led to the first loss of his professional career. He has a chance to right the ship against the declining Marquardt, who has dropped three of four since returning to the UFC two years ago. Gastelum is not a middleweight, and by 2015 standards, neither is Marquardt, which makes this the perfect bounce-back fight for the younger man.

Gastelum is essentially an athletic and powerful pressure fighter. He likes to press forward behind his southpaw jab and cut off his opponents’ angles with kicks, and once they have retreated toward the fence, Gastelum commits with hard straight left-right hook combinations. Countering in the pocket is a strength, and he is solid defensively, though he can still be hit, especially by opponents who take clean pivots and angles. The real meat of Gastelum’s game, however, lies in the transitions. He excels at covering his explosive double-leg with strikes and hitting it as a counter to his opponent’s forward movement, and once the fight hits the mat, he immediately looks to pass. In the event of a scramble or dropping his opponent with a punch, Gastelum uses a lightning-quick move to the back, where he slaps on a fast rear-naked choke. Offensive output and cardio have generally been assets for him, though his increasingly bad weight cuts have eaten into those advantages.

Marquardt has been in the game forever, and there is little he does not know how to do. A crisp jab and potent right hand remain the centerpiece of his game on the feet, along with cracking round kicks and the occasional side or front kick to spice up things. He works at a slow pace, however, and is not a defensive mastermind, which the obvious decline of his ability to absorb punishment exacerbates. Wrestling has always been a strong suit, with rugged takedown defense and generally solid offensive technique. From top position, he drops absolute bombs, passes smoothly and can hit the occasional submission.

THE PICK: Barring some disaster, Gastelum should take this handily. He is younger, faster, more durable, works at a quicker pace and has the power to break the increasingly hittable Marquardt if he connects cleanly. I think that is exactly what will happen. The pick is Gastelum by knockout in the first round.

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