Preview: UFC 185 ‘Pettis vs. dos Anjos’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Johny Hendricks (16-3, 11-3 UFC) vs. Matt Brown (19-12, 12-6 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Former welterweight champion Hendricks makes his return to the cage against the ultra-violent Brown in a fantastic matchup. Hendricks lost his belt to the resurgent Robbie Lawler in December, while Brown likewise dropped his last fight to the current welterweight kingpin in July. Before that, Brown had run off seven consecutive victories over increasingly difficult competition in one of the more improbable streaks in recent UFC history.

Hendricks has built on his strong wrestling base to become an increasingly slick and skilled striker. Already one of the more dangerous punchers at 170 pounds, he now puts together smooth combinations consisting of two or three punches and a hard kick to the legs or body to finish. He takes clean angles and flows beautifully, adjusting to his opponent’s defenses mid-sequence and dropping shots into the open spaces under, through and around the guard. He remains one of the more vicious clinch fighters in the sport, with an arsenal of uppercuts from the single-collar tie, hard knees and setups for his driving takedowns. Although he uses them less than before, Hendricks still owns authoritatively finished doubles and singles. Control on the ground is less a concern for him than breaking his opponents’ rhythm, and he will often rinse and repeat takedowns just to prevent them from getting comfortable at striking range. He works at a quick pace in all phases, but suspect cardio has been a problem in several fights, and there is always the chance that he might fade late.

Brown is one of the purest pressure fighters in MMA. His entire approach is predicated around pushing forward and using a long left hook-straight right combination and right high kicks to cut off his opponent’s escape angles and force him backwards into the fence. Once he has his opponent stuck against the cage, Brown puts his outstanding clinch game to work, switching between single-collar ties, over-unders, double underhooks, side clinches and every other position. When he grinds against the fence, he throws a bewildering variety of straight and angled knees to the body and head, along with sharp vertical, diagonal and horizontal elbows around and through the opponent’s guard. Brown also owns a slick array of trips and Thai-style dumps in the clinch, and he wrestles surprisingly well both offensively and defensively. Submission defense was a problem in the past, but, in general, Brown is a sound grappler, and if he can get to top position his ground striking is devastating.

The problem with all of this is defense. While Brown has an outstanding chin, he does not especially like to get hit, especially to the body. Opponents who can consistently get off first at range and who are willing to stand their ground when he comes forward can mostly shut down his pressure game and force him to fight in the middle of the cage, where he is much less impressive.

BETTING ODDS: Hendricks (-320), Brown (+260)

THE PICK: The betting odds seem correct to me. If Hendricks were less willing to throw down in the pocket or were a less competent clinch fighter, Brown would have a much better shot, but the fact is that the former champion matches up quite well with the Ohio native. As long as his cardio holds up, I expect Hendricks to work smooth combinations at range, shut down Brown’s pressure with offense of his own and do enough in the clinch and wrestling exchanges to take at least two rounds. Hendricks by clear decision is the pick.

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