Preview: UFC 182 ‘Jones vs. Cormier’

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Nate Marquardt (33-13-2, 11-6 UFC) vs. Brad Tavares (12-3, 7-3 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Former hot prospect Tavares’ five-fight winning streak is now a mere memory after dropping two in a row to Cuban Olympian Yoel Romero and Tim Boetsch, the last by devastating knockout in a fight he was winning easily. He gets a suddenly resurgent Marquardt, who was knocked out by Hector Lombard and Jake Ellenberger in a pair of welterweight scraps before taking a much-needed victory over James Te Huna at middleweight in his last outing. The winner will be back on track in the middleweight division, while the loser will probably be fighting in a smaller promotion in his next bout.

In isolation, Tavares’ skills look solid. He is an excellent defensive wrestler and a strong grinder in the clinch, hits decent takedowns and can string together clean, technical punch-kick combinations at range. For whatever reason, however, the whole is worth less than the sum of its parts.

Tavares is not a particularly powerful striker, does not throw much volume, lacks a dominating skill set and is content to coast in fights against overmatched competition where he should probably be pushing for a finish. He is still young and is clearly a plus athlete, but he has yet to put his game together into a coherent whole. With more than seven years of professional experience under his belt, the question centers on whether he ever will.

Marquardt, a 15-year veteran, has a fully developed game in every phase. He is a diverse, aggressive striker -- his kitchen-sink finish of Wilson Gouveia is still one of the straight-up coolest in MMA history -- who throws crisp jabs, hard right hands, a no-switch left kick up high and flicking side and front kicks at long range. As Marquardt moves to close range, he shows sharp elbows and knees and a strong clinch game. Few opponents have succeeded in outwrestling Marquardt at any weight, and he is one of the more underrated grapplers out there, with a slick submission repertoire to go along with a strong, punishing top game. At this point, the problem is not Marquardt’s skills, but his obvious physical decline. While still a good athlete, he has real trouble taking punches, and his chin is going to be a real problem against every opponent he faces from here out.

BETTING ODDS: Marquardt (-135), Tavares (+115)

THE PICK: The odds make sense given Tavares’ two-fight losing streak and Marquardt’s skill advantage, but the veteran is on the wrong side of the aging curve and Tavares is still improving from fight to fight. If the younger fighter allows Marquardt to push him backwards or gets taken down, he will be in trouble, but I think Tavares’ physicality will give Marquardt fits on the inside, and his takedown defense should be good enough to keep the fight standing. At range, Marquardt has an edge, but the problems with his chin make this closer than it appears at first glance. This is more of a bet on Marquardt’s decline than anything in particular, but Tavares by decision is the pick.

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