Maeda did much for his stature and image in his WEC bantamweight title challenge and "Fight of the Year" contender against Miguel Torres last June. His turnaround submission loss to Rani Yahya five months later, however, while much less viewed, showed his worst warts. We seldom think of MMA in terms of offensive and defensive separation the way we do in stick-and-ball sports, but Maeda provides an interesting case as to why we perhaps should. A brilliant offensive fighter, Maeda not only has an underrated offensive submission game but a high-flying, varied striking attack with considerable KO power.
However, his entire career has been marked by defensive instability, between walking into knockouts against Charles "Krazy Horse" Bennett and Daiki "DJ.taiki" Hata, to falling head first into submissions against Joe Pearson and Rani Yahya. It's an unfortunate pairing of traits, which much like high-powered offensive teams in the NFL and NBA, will never offer championship-level stability but will always ensure that Maeda is a legitimate threat.
Miller is certainly not the high-octane threat Maeda is on the feet, but he has steadily improved his stand-up over the last two years, notwithstanding getting clipped by Josh Grispi and being a victim of a weak stoppage from Herb Dean. A slick and spindly submission stud, Miller's real forte is still on the ground, where he's adroit in all positions, with serious finishing skills. While his December bout against Jason Palacios may just seem like an average tune-up to the casual eye, Miller ripping off an impressive submission is indeed worthy of praise. Palacios is not only a very tough-but-unheralded fighter, he is also a fighter grapplers like Takuya Wada and Satoru Kitaoka couldn’t finish in bouts contested at welterweight. It would be wrong to size this bout up as striker-versus-grappler, but certainly Maeda will want to stand and bang. Though Miller can hold his own on the feet, his better chances are on the ground. It is always a tricky proposition to pick Maeda, or against him, given his flakiness and defensive liabilities. However, given Miller's improved stand-up and reach advantage -- two qualities that Maeda has struggled mightily with against lanky foes like Torres and Taiki -- and the fact that Miller has the sort of slick, snap-second submissions that Maeda often finds himself getting trapped in, my figurative money rests with a Miller submission, although my literal money will never go anywhere near a Yoshiro Maeda bout.