In yet another marquee fight, Akira Shoji (Pictures) (12-12-5) flies in from Japan — he’ll be looking to frustrate the flying limbs of Mark “The Wizard” Weir (16-9).
Shoji is short and solid at 185 pounds, but much of his career has been spent either fighting much bigger men (such as Semmy Schilt (Pictures), Igor Vovchanchyn (Pictures) and Mark Coleman (Pictures)), or fighting top light heavyweights of the time, such as Mauricio and Murilo Rua (Pictures), Guy Mezger and Alex Stiebling (Pictures). If you start to remove the fights where the decks have been physically stacked against him, Shoji’s got a pretty good record.
He actually beat Mezger when the latter was still in his prime; he beat Wallid Ismail (Pictures); drew with Renzo Gracie (Pictures) (in his prime); and defeated Ebenezer Fontes Braga.
Thirty-eight-year-old Mark Weir (Pictures) is one of the elder statesmen of the UK fight scene. “The Wizard” has been around since the beginning, and is one of the most successful and well-known fighters to hail from these ancient shores. The soft-spoken Englishman packs some lethal punches and kicks, and is still one of the fastest strikers in the game.
Weir was extremely successful in his youth, going undefeated for two years and recording one of the fastest knockouts in UFC history (at UFC 38, against Eugene Jackson) before losing his next two fights against the controversial Phillip Miller (Pictures) and top middleweight contender David Loiseau (Pictures) (at UFC 40 and 42 respectively). Since then Weir has shown some consistent vulnerabilities, which his opponents have all tried to exploit.
The Englishman’s long limbs make him an easy target for takedowns and Weir’s ground game, although decent, does not compare with some of the top submission fighters at his weight. The Englishman has already fought five times this year, taking a 2-3 record. This overall performance masks a recent improvement in form — Weir looked very focused and determined in his dominating victory over Sol Gilbert (Pictures), and was ruthless in putting away the much smaller Kyosuke Sasaki (Pictures).
Both of these fighters have obvious strengths and deficiencies, and, all things considered, I think the odds stack up pretty well in Shoji’s favor. The Japanese is incredibly tough, determined and possessed of an excellent ground game. He has more than enough wrestling skill to take the long-limbed Englishman to the mat, and once there I don’t feel that Weir’s ground game will be sufficient to keep the wily veteran at bay. Weir won’t be easy to put away but I think Shoji will dominate him sufficiently to take the victory by decision.
In a further high-profile clash, Chute Boxe’s favorite Elvis impersonator, Antonio Schembri (Pictures) (3-3), will be hoping to reverse a three-fight losing streak against the forgotten man of the middleweight division, Matt Lindland (Pictures) (15-3).
Lindland has already given his views on this match here, and I think his analysis is pretty accurate. Schembri, 31, was primarily a jiu-jitsu competitor in his youth, and his MMA career seems to have taken second-place to that calling.
Inside the ring he plays the positional game, moving cautiously and trying to finish only when he is certain that he can do so. That four of his six professional fights have gone to the judges is proof of his consistently conservative strategy, especially when you consider that one of his victories was a fluke TKO over Kazushi Sakuraba (Pictures).
The 35-year-old Lindland may be considered boring by some, but he’s certainly effective. In my opinion, the Olympic silver medalist could be justified in feeling a bit hard done on the popularity front, since every time I’ve seen him fight he’s been ultra-aggressive and consistently up for it. In his one previous showing in the UK, at Cage Rage 9, Lindland obliterated Mark Weir (Pictures) en route to a doctor stoppage.
This really shouldn’t be a surprise. Lindland is bigger, more aggressive, more experienced and, well … just better than Schembri. Expect the American to do what he does best. He’ll clinch, slam and then pummel the Brazilian until the bell rings. Schembri will pick himself up, they’ll return to their corners and then Lindland will do it all again for the next two rounds. Schembri’s tough enough to take it to the judges, but I’ll be shocked if it’s not clear-cut.
In yet another Japanese visit, Daijiro Matsui (Pictures) (7-13-3), Mr. Blood-and-Guts himself, takes on British striker Alex Reid (Pictures) (7-2-0).
Now, what can I say about 33-year-old Daijiro Matsui (Pictures) that hasn’t already been said? Basically he’s an incredibly tough, brave man who has faced some of the scariest people in the world and taken most of them to decision. When he does win, he tends to do it through sheer guts, blind determination and endless stamina.
Although he can count a pretty controversial victory against Jose Landi-Jons (complete with drop-kicks) in his record, as well as an even more controversial win against Quinton Jackson (Pictures) (by gonad strike to the knee), all of his other victories have come against lesser talent. Against top competition he loses … eventually.
Reid was considered one of the brightest prospects in UK MMA before, to mix a couple of metaphors, a couple of tough matches took the gloss off his rising star. Reid has beaten some good guys in his day, like Jean-Francoise Lenogue and Matt Ewin (Pictures), but the only really top fighter he has faced is Jorge Rivera (Pictures), who knocked him out quickly and convincingly.
Reid’s only match since the loss to Rivera was a controversial one against Kyosuke Sasaki (Pictures), officially recorded as a TKO victory for Reid. In terms of style, Reid brings a good striking game to the table, backed up by some solid ground skills, especially from his back.
In terms of Saturday’s card, I’m quite looking forward to this match and it’s a pretty difficult one to pick. I think Matsui’s too experienced and too wily to get submitted by Reid, and too tough for the Englishman to knockout. This one’s going to go to decision but I’m not sure who will come out on top. I’ve got a feeling that the “Reidernator” will take the first round, but will be smothered by Matsui for the last two. I’ll pick the Japanese by decision.