The Breakdown: Both fighters have judo backgrounds, but it should be common knowledge that Aoki’s skills are far superior. He has become one of the most advanced ground fighters on the planet. While everyone’s favorite spandex-wearing Tokyoite holds a significant advantage on the mat, Hirota -- who has eight career knockouts on his record, including stoppages of Kitaoka, former International Fight League champion Ryan Schultz and former Shooto Pacific Rim titleholder Mitsuhiro Ishida -- has almost as much of an edge on the feet.
Aoki’s cerebral approach to fighting sets him apart from 99 percent of all lightweights. The Paraestra Tokyo product has continually outsmarted his opponents with well-conceived game plans. He stuck to American Top Team standout Gesias Cavalcante like glue, blitzed the ever-impressive Eddie Alvarez and beat fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Vitor Ribeiro with leg kicks.
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The Prediction: This fight plays out in two ways, and both have Aoki winning at the end. Either he throws all caution to the wind and goes after the submission right from the opening bell or he puts Hirota through a grappling clinic, minimizing his risks by keeping the action on the mat. In either case, it would be surprising if Hirota -- although he has never been stopped -- stayed out of Aoki’s vast arsenal of creative submissions. Look for Aoki to make Hirota tap out with his go-to move, the straight armbar, midway through the first round.