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Shane Roller vs. Anthony Pettis

As soon as Jamie Varner’s hopes of a rematch with incumbent WEC lightweight champion Benson Henderson were dimmed by the controversial draw in his match with Kamal Shalorus, the contenders fight between Roller and Pettis took on a whole new dimension. An impressive win for either man makes a serious case for a headlining title shot.

For Pettis to make that case he’ll have to show across-the-board improvements in not only his takedown defense but also his actual desire to defend takedowns. He’s a clear example of a fighter who is so accustomed to being able to work submissions off his back that he has neglected the inevitable -- facing a wrestler who can bully him down and avoid those submissions.

The problem is twofold with Roller. He has taken to Brazilian jiu-jitsu quite well under the tutelage of Marc Laimon, and his striking is just enough of a threat to effectively set up his takedowns. Obviously he isn’t about to go blow-for-blow with Pettis, but Roller has the smarts to step inside and use his striking as a decoy for clinch grabs and leg attacks.

For Pettis to have any success on the feet he has to first stuff the takedowns coming his way. Stepping inside Roller’s range will mean he’s giving up his reach advantage and likely handing over easy takedown opportunities. At all costs, Pettis must maintain a comfortable distance and get Roller desperate enough to start shooting for low-percentage takedowns.

Saying Pettis’ hopes lie with his striking would seem to ignore his obvious grappling skill, but the fact is that Roller’s tight, methodical style doesn’t lend itself to the scrambles that favor “Showtime.” Bart Palaszewski was able to work a poor man’s version of Roller’s style and found a great deal of success by simply denying Pettis the space he needs to get his offense going.

In the mere months since that loss, Pettis has remained far too willing to work off his back and hasn’t shown any improvement in his defensive wrestling. He is certainly capable of fixing the gaps in his game quickly, but Roller isn’t the guy to try and test out new skills on. A frustrating fight for Pettis ends with Roller taking a hard-fought decision.