More than likely, the man who can score the bulk of the takedowns will emerge victorious here, as neither fighter is known for a dynamic guard game. While Cruz has certainly proven himself as a wrestler, he has a bad habit of losing his base and giving up unnecessary takedowns. In an evenly matched fight, those are the kind of tiny holes Benavidez will look to dynamite wide open.
The X Factor: Most of Benavidez’s game on the feet is built around speed and power, whereas Cruz has the kind of movement and fundamental skill that separates him from your typical wrestler/striker. Anytime two top-tier wrestlers lock horns, stalemates happen more often than not, and if these two do wrestle to a standstill, Cruz will have the edge. Unless Benavidez can bust out some of his mentor Urijah Faber’s “Matrix”-style striking, he better hope his Silverback breed of wrestling will be enough once the cage door closes.
* * *
The Bottom Line: This fight should resemble something out of “Transformers,” and Benavidez will play Optimus Prime, as he bulldozes Cruz with takedowns for the bulk of the three rounds. Bank on Cruz giving Benavidez some issues on the feet, but he will not keep matters upright long enough to make up the difference.