UFC on Versus 1 Preview: The Main Card

Junior dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

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The Breakdown: After enduring year after year of a heavyweight division stuck neck-deep in the mud of mediocrity, the long awaited new blood has finally arrived. Among its leaders is Team Black House uppercut machine Junior dos Santos. Not too long ago Gabriel Gonzaga was considered part of the heavyweight resurgence as well, but ever since knocking Mirko Filipovic into another dimension at UFC 70, the furry Brazilian’s most significant Octagon moment was robbing Chris Tuchscherer of his short-term reproductive capabilities at UFC 102.

All would be forgiven with a win over dos Santos, but first Gonzaga needs to ditch the misguided notion that he’s a world-class striker. While “Napao” certainly has the striking to cluster bomb the Josh Hendricks of the world, his bout with Shane Carwin at UFC 96 revealed a fighter who has lost touch with his grappling roots.

In a division populated by men who look like they were bred in military research facilities, it makes little sense to forgo years of Brazilian jiu-jitsu training in favor of powerful but unrefined striking. Practically every world-class heavyweight is capable of knocking out a small country. In dos Santos’ case, he actually has some technical skill backing up his power and hand-speed, which makes him unique in a division full of cookie-cutter brawlers. The difference in movement alone is massive, as Gonzaga tends to lumber about the cage while dos Santos has shown a surprisingly solid understanding of how to use his movement to create openings and evade strikes.

Subtle differences like movement and stringing together punches intelligently easily overcome Gonzaga’s size and strength advantage. What dos Santos might not be able to overcome is Gonzaga’s grappling. Early in his career, dos Santos looked like an easy mark on the mat, and Gonzaga can still tap fools out in his sleep. The question is if dos Santos has improved enough on the mat to escape back to his feet and, more importantly, if Gonzaga will have the good sense to even go for a takedown.

The variable that no one seems to be talking about, however, is Gonzaga’s conditioning. After some rigorous scientific research, I’ve determined that Gonzaga doesn’t gas out but that he is actually composed of gases that rapidly dissipate when exposed to physically rigorous activity. Consider that dos Santos has the tank to go 15 hard minutes while Gonzaga can barely go a hard five, and that is what should be weighing heavily on the mind of anyone hoping that dos Santos doesn’t take Gonzaga’s pelt as a prize.

The Bottom Line: If you assume sound mind and body for Gonzaga, this is an easy fight to pick: Gonzaga will bull dos Santos down and beat him. Assuming anything in the context of a fistfight is never a good idea, though, and odds are Gonzaga will try his hand at lopping dos Santos’ head off. All it will get him is a pair of lungs desperate for oxygen and a decision loss as dos Santos overcomes some early headaches to just barely eke out a decision win.