Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com
One of the most promising lightweight
prospects in the sport, Nate Diaz
(pictured) hopes to continue his roll
against Josh Neer.
Age: 23
Hometown: Stockton, Calif.
Fighting out of: Stockton, Calif.
MMA record: 9-2
Bio: Once known simply as “Nick Diaz’s kid brother,” Nate Diaz has blossomed into one of the most gifted up-and-coming lightweights in the world under the skilled tutelage of trainer par excellence, Cesar Gracie.
A product of the same rough-and-tumble Stockton streets that produced his volatile brother, Diaz is hardly the paragon of Victorian etiquette. He has managed to keep his fighting inside the cage, but that’s not to say he doesn’t have his own demons to exorcise thanks to his controversial, injury-induced submission win over Manny Gamburyan on “The Ultimate Fighter 5” finale. That speed bump proved to be just that, though, as Diaz has gone on to reel off three straight submission wins while climbing the lightweight ranks and stepping out of the long shadow cast by Nick.
Why he’ll win: Thus far, no one has managed to survive Diaz’s onslaught on the ground. While Neer holds the same size advantage that Kurt Pellegrino used to great effect against Diaz, all it took was one miniscule mistake for Diaz to put Pellegrino away.
Why he’ll lose: The only glaring weakness in Diaz’s game is his jiu-jitsu-grade wrestling -- a weakness that Neer can exploit with his size advantage and solid clinch skills. Considering Neer, unlike Diaz’s past UFC opponents, won’t be in a hurry to hit the mat, Diaz may have hit his glass ceiling.
Josh Neer Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’11”/155 lbs.
Age: 25
Hometown: Des Moines, Iowa
Fighting out of: Bettendorf, Iowa
MMA record: 24-6-1
Bio: A longtime member of the Midwest MMA monolith Miletich Martial Arts, Neer is a recent lightweight convert after spending most of his career as a solid welterweight journeyman.
The drop in weight paid immediate dividends. In his return to the UFC, Neer dismantled consummate veteran Din Thomas in impressive fashion with a roughhousing style that emphasized close-quarters combat and rugged ground striking designed to wear down opponents.
In an increasingly wide-open lightweight division, Neer may be in prime position to make a run thanks to his dichotomous combination of youth and experience merged with talent and skill.
Why he’ll win: Modern MMA puts a premium on being the bigger man, and Neer’s massive frame will come in handy against the slightly built Diaz. If Neer turns this bout into a trench war, Diaz won’t have the strength or skill to survive, never mind wait out a submission.
Why he’ll lose: Suspect submission defense is a major liability to have against Diaz, and Neer struggled with crafty grapplers as a welterweight. Whether Neer’s newfound size can make up the difference is anyone’s guess, but if this bout hits the ground, his corner will be declaring Defcon 1.
* * *
The bottom line: As much as Diaz’s submission-oriented style limits his options, that style has paid out thus far and his indomitable will to win has carried him through major adversity, as seen in his bout with Pellegrino. Neer presents an even more difficult challenge since his style, unlike Pellegrino’s, is not dependant on dominating the ground game.
It won’t be easy, but Diaz will ride out some early adversity and use Neer’s up-close fisticuffs against him by pulling guard and releasing the hounds Mr. Burns style for another come-from-behind submission win.