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FIGHT ODDS

UFC Fight Night ‘Jacare vs. Mousasi 2’ Preview

Patrick WymanSep 03, 2014
Alistair Overeem has run hot and cold in the UFC. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com


Heavyweights

Alistair Overeem (37-13, 2-2 UFC) vs. Ben Rothwell (33-9, 3-3 UFC)

Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Rothwell is 4-4 in his last eight.
The Matchup: Overeem entered the UFC with a bang, extending an 11-fight unbeaten streak to 12 with a first-round demolition of former heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. He was even scheduled to face heavyweight kingpin Junior dos Santos for the title before failing a drug test and suffering two devastating knockouts. He got back on track with a dominant victory over Frank Mir back in February, but it remains to be seen whether this is for real or merely a positive hiccup in an ongoing career decline. Rothwell was flagged for elevated testosterone in August 2013 and makes his return to the UFC to continue an up-and-down campaign.

Despite his obvious issues with absorbing knockout shots, Overeem’s underlying game remains tremendously effective. He is an aggressive kickboxer with serious power who does his best work moving forward, though his tendency to rely on covering up, rather than head movement or spacing, for defense has caused noticeable problems; plus, he offers little offense off his back foot. His best skill set, however, consists of his brutal work in the clinch.

Nobody in MMA throws harder knees than Overeem, and he makes creative use of snapdowns, front headlocks and Thai-style sweeps and throws mixed in with a sneaky guillotine choke. He is also a supremely underrated grappler with a potent, controlling top game that has often gone overlooked.

Rothwell is an aggressive, walk-you-down kind of striker with big power in his hands. While he is not a special athletic specimen or a particularly high-level kickboxer, he is durable, tremendously strong and well-rounded in comparison to most heavyweights. He does his best work with his opponent close to the fence, which hides his relative lack of speed.

Betting Odds: Overeem (-505), Rothwell (+335)

The Pick: This all depends on how conservatively Overeem approaches his opponent and whether he will be able to keep his back away from the cage, because Rothwell is perfectly capable of separating him from consciousness if he gets sloppy in punching distance without the ability to back up. I sincerely doubt that will happen, however, given the Dutchman’s consummately technical kickboxing and vastly superior speed and athleticism. Overeem will cautiously circle away from Rothwell’s power, picking and choosing his shots and tying him up in the clinch whenever possible. The Wisconsin native has struggled with his takedown defense in the past, and if he ends up with his back on the mat -- which he certainly will if “The Reem” locks him up for any extended period of time -- he will find himself in serious trouble. I like Overeem by knockout via ground strikes in the second round.

Next Fight » Derrick Lewis vs. Matt Mitrione