UFC Fight Night 22 Preview: The Main Card

Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira

Thanks to a torrent of last-minute injuries that forced some creative matchmaking solutions, undefeated fistic ingénue Oliveira will now take on “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 8 champion Escudero. Make no mistake, this fight will likely produce the lightweight division’s next contender, which is why it feels like such a quantum leap in competition for Oliveira.

Cleaning up against no-name competition on Brazil’s regional circuit is a good way to get some seasoning. It’s poor preparation for the caliber of wrestling common at the world-class level, though. Oliveira’s own arrogance in regards to the supposed superiority of Brazilian jiu-jitsu is even more worrisome in this bout, as Escudero is a far cry from a clueless wrestler. Every single time Escudero looks to ground this fight, he will succeed and Oliveira’s willingness to abide by those terms seems reckless at best.

All due credit to Oliveira: He’s a fine grappler and has tremendous timing on his submission attempts. However, he wasn’t blowing away everyone on the Brazilian scene, and Escudero has a combination of wrestling and submission skill that “Do Bronx” simply hasn’t yet encountered. Further complicating matters is Escudero’s striking, which is flat out better than Oliveira’s.

Again, the issue isn’t one of talent but refinement. Oliveira doesn’t yet have the technique to translate his athleticism into fundamentally sound striking. This manifests itself as a lot of single strikes with little connection or flow between them. While Escudero does have a tendency to freelance in the cage, his boxing technique has come along just enough to enhance the natural power and speed behind his punches.

For Oliveira to win he’ll need two variables to dovetail perfectly. First and foremost Escudero has to show some of the same recklessness that cost him his fight with Evan Dunham. Second, Oliveira has to be up to the task of pulling off a win in a fight that he’ll most likely be losing. It’s all just too much to ask of a prospect who is still just that -- a prospect.