UFC 97 Breakdown: The Prelims

Sam Stout vs. Matt Wiman

The Breakdown: Consider this a battle of lightweights struggling for recognition. Stout’s supposedly fearsome kickboxing has not translated into much in the way of wins, and Wiman’s jack-of-all-trades routine leaves him outgunned against the division’s elite. While the temptation is to bank on Stout’s striking, he lacks the power to crack Wiman’s stout chin and the takedown defense to keep the “Handsome” one from forcing the action to the mat. As much as Stout’s grappling has improved, he’s not going to win a ground battle with Wiman.

The X Factor: Wiman’s lack of discipline on the feet remains a problem, as his punches get wider than Rush Limbaugh’s waistline, and his defense suffers. In small doses, Wiman can get away with it, but if he does not stay focused on Stout’s weaknesses, he’ll end up down on the scorecards and desperate for offense. With Stout’s ground game and wrestling having advanced to the point that he’s no longer an easy tapout, dusting off the bad ideas playbook will get Wiman the chin check special.

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The Bottom Line: Stout’s overrated striking will not be enough to win him this fight, and he will not do well fending off takedowns for 15 minutes. Expect Wiman to get popped a few times on the feet, but he will make up the difference on the mat, as Stout’s “Hands of Stone” will not do much except play the three-tap symphony.