UFC 95 Breakdown: The Main Card

Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson

Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’11/155 lbs.
Age: 27
Hometown: Albuquerque, N.M.
Fighting out of: San Diego
Record: 19-2

The breakdown: As much as Diego Sanchez is known for his dynamic guard, the key to beating Joe Stevenson has always been to force him to work from his own guard. While it’s no secret that Stevenson’s top game is a rare blend of savage striking and brute-force submissions, most of his offense off his back consists of going for leg locks or guillotine chokes -- neither of which will get you far against Sanchez.

However, Sanchez has never been known for his wrestling. While his striking has made strides, it would be a stretch to assume he can both resist Stevenson’s takedowns and outclass him on the feet. What Sanchez needs to do is force a hectic pace on Stevenson, who has always had trouble with his conditioning. Even if Sanchez struggles early on, forcing Stevenson to fight at meth-freak speed will eventually allow Sanchez to seize the upper hand.

The X factor: Weight cutting is as common as it is unpredictable in modern MMA, and everyone is wondering how Sanchez will acclimate to his new home in the lightweight division. The answer to that question will likely decide if Sanchez’s drop in weight will join New Coke and the XFL in the pantheon of bad ideas.

Joe “Daddy” Stevenson Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’7/155 lbs.
Age: 26
Hometown: Torrance, Calif.
Fighting out of: Victorville, Calif.
Record: 29-9

The breakdown: The key to beating Sanchez has always been to control him, and mastering that strategy is what Stevenson must focus on. Unfortunately, we’ve seen Stevenson show up with some sorry strategies in recent bouts with B.J. Penn and Kenny Florian. Not coincidentally, both bouts ended with Stevenson taking a one-sided loss. Approaching Sanchez from a cerebral point of view is the only way Stevenson will reverse his trend of big-fight blowups.

Step one will be to take Sanchez down and establish a strong base while using measured ground-and-pound to keep him occupied. Simply lying on top of Sanchez will get you tapped out, but Stevenson’s ground-and-pound from the guard is criminally underrated and he’ll have to make it the lynchpin of his strategy. Otherwise, we may see Stevenson revive the ill-fated “KI-YA!” strategy that got him shredded at UFC 91.

The X factor: Stopping Sanchez proved impossible for the litany of welterweights he faced, and that isn’t likely to change now that Sanchez is a lightweight. Besides coming in with a sound strategy, Stevenson has to be ready to go the full 15 minutes or risk leaving the window open for a repeat of past mistakes.

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The bottom line: Stevenson will always be one of the better lightweights around, but he hasn’t shown the fight IQ or conditioning to make a breakthrough. Sanchez’s decision to drop in weight will finally give him a chance to shine in a division where he won’t be physically outmatched by ginormous wrestlers. Expect a zen performance from Sanchez and a punishing victory.