Ht/Wt: 5’5/155 lbs.
Age: 27
Hometown: Gyumri, Armenia
Fighting out of: North Hollywood, Calif.
Record: 8-3
The stakes: For Gamburyan, much like Tavares, this bout represents a crossroads in his UFC career. A finalist on the fifth season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Gamburyan’s run was short-circuited by a chronic shoulder injury, but he still entered the UFC regarded as a potential lightweight contender. After a disastrous 12-second knockout loss to the unheralded Robert Emerson, Gamburyan now looks like a product of the UFC hype machine instead of the undiscovered gem we saw on “TUF.”
The breakdown: What really got Gamburyan off course was his decision to engage Emerson standing, instead of merely going for his usual ground-centric strategy. With his combination of short stature and even shorter reach, Gamburyan needs to stick to the bullish top control that served him so well on “TUF.” Against Tavares, Gamburyan must remain focused on scoring quick takedowns and maintaining position with his strong base and methodical ground-and-pound.
Thiago Tavares Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’7/155 lbs.
Age: 24
Hometown: Florianopolis, Brazil
Fighting out of: Florianopolis, Brazil
Record: 13-3
The stakes: Since a hot start to his UFC run made him look like the next great Brazilian lightweight, Tavares has hit the skids, with three losses in his last four bouts. If Tavares plans to prove he can beat legitimate UFC-level talent, he needs to start by showing some of his supposedly world-class ability against Gamburyan. Otherwise, it’s going to be a long trip back to Brazil.
The breakdown: Talent’s not an issue with Tavares; it’s obvious he has all the skills for which one could ask, and he’s been in some tough scraps with top-tier opponents like Tyson Griffin and Kurt Pellegrino. Putting it all together when it matters most is the issue, and against Gamburyan, Tavares has to be prepared to work off his back. Luckily, Tavares’ jiu-jitsu is plenty good enough to give Gamburyan fits, but if the Brazilian gets discouraged or comes in unprepared, he may have a UFC pink slip in his mail soon.
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The bottom line: Dazzling as Tavares’ jiu-jitsu has been in the past, he has often struggled against opponents with disciplined top control. One could easily argue that Tavares’ makeshift wrestling is what cost him his bouts with Pellegrino and Griffin, and that fatal flaw will be what buries him yet again. It’s known that Gamburyan has no qualms about working a conservative, control-centric gameplan, and that will be the strategy that gets him the victory.