UFC 140 Preview: The Main Card

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Heavyweights
Frank Mir (15-5, 13-5 UFC) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1, 4-2 UFC)

The Matchup: The trend before each Nogueira bout is to question how much the former Pride Fighting Championships heavyweight titleholder has left in the tank. Nearly three years ago, when “Minotauro” tangled with Mir for the first time at UFC 92, those same doubts existed. After dropping the Brazilian twice in the opening frame, Mir finished the job with a pair of left hooks, followed by punches on the ground in round two. It was the first time in his professional career that Nogueira had been stopped.

Fast forward to the present, and Nogueira is still around, defying the odds just when everyone is ready to close the book on his memorable career. Multiple surgeries and an 18-month layoff made Nogueira a considerable underdog against Brendan Schaub at UFC 134, but he outstruck the Grudge Training Center product and earned a first-round technical knockout. Matched with Mir once again, Minotauro could position himself nicely at heavyweight with one more improbable victory.

Mir is coming off consecutive victories against Mirko Filipovic and Roy Nelson but gave uneven performances in both bouts, lacking aggression until the third round against “Cro Cop” and failing to finish “Big Country,” who was battling walking pneumonia. He will need to show a greater sense of urgency against the seemingly rejuvenated Nogueira.

In their first encounter, the grappling exhibition that many anticipated never transpired. Instead, Mir showcased his improved standup, and the Brazilian has never been one to back down from an exchange thanks to his solid boxing. The difficulty today is that he cannot always absorb the amount of punishment he once could, as Mir and Cain Velasquez have recently proved.

Despite his excellent submission game and solid guard, Mir would like to make this encounter a carbon copy of the first, where he can use a right uppercut-left hook combination to test his opponent’s chin. What makes rematches interesting, however, is that they quite often take a different direction than the original fight. Nogueira’s footwork has slowed with time, and he will have to be smart when striking with Mir. He demonstrated against Schaub that his hands are still dangerous, but he will want to keep Mir at a safe distance to avoid his uppercut and knees in the clinch.

The Pick: Nogueira is always good for a Hail Mary submission attempt, so Mir must proceed with caution if he hurts him early. With the ground games of both men likely to cancel each other out, it becomes a case of who can connect with heavy leather first. Mir gets the best of the action and takes second-round technical knockout.

Continue Reading » Next Fight: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Tito Ortiz