UFC 131 Preview: The Main Card

Kenny Florian started out as a middleweight on “The Ultimate Fighter 1.” | Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

The Matchup: Florian keeps shrinking, at least compared to the 181 pounds he weighed against Diego Sanchez at “The Ultimate Fighter 1” Finale. A veteran of the reality show’s seminal first season, Florian eventually settled in at 155 pounds after two wins as a welterweight, becoming a longtime staple of the lightweight division. Good enough to beat talented contenders like Clay Guida, Roger Huerta and Joe Stevenson, Florian may have felt he hit a ceiling in facing strong wrestler types that dominate the ranks at 155.

Nunes is a fresh face coming in off three straight wins, including a decision over former WEC champion Mike Thomas Brown at UFC 125. Good conditioning and a fine-tuned game have gotten him here. Nunes was 6-1 in the WEC.

On paper, this is probably Florian’s fight to lose. The real wild card is how well he handles the cut to 145 pounds, which can be much tougher if the body is not acclimated to years of doing it; that is precisely why wrestlers tend to be more successful in going down a division. On the feet, Florian remains an excellent technician, mixing in kicks with sharp strikes and a great tactical game plan each time out.

There is always the chance that Nunes could take advantage of a drained Florian and hold him down for a decision, but the guess here is that “KenFlo” has just enough to stay sharp while dictating the pace. This may include some lengthy tie-ups to get a breather -- something he is proficient at doing when the needs arises -- but Florian remains an experienced fighter with a great tool box with which to work. The Pick: Florian will pick his spots and be more effective on the feet, wearing down Nunes en route to a decision win.

Next Fight: Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman