B.J. Penn (top): Dave Mandel | Sherdog.com
B.J. Penn (No. 3 LW) vs. Matt Hughes
The Matchup: Rubber matches are rare in MMA, especially among two iconic names like Penn and Hughes. Hughes may not be in immediate title contention, but, ironically, he has looked better than ever in recent outings against Renzo Gracie and Ricardo Almeida, illustrating again how much everyone else has improved in a division he once dominated. He seems more acclimated to the stand-up game than he was as champion, and he still has those vaunted wrestling chops.
The problem is he is facing Penn, whose guard remains as potent as anyone’s in MMA. Plus, when Penn is on his game, he can stifle almost anyone standing. He gave Hughes all sorts of trouble in their second match before he ran out of gas; an injured rib was said to be the culprit. However, Penn’s back-to-back losses to Frankie Edgar have left his immediate future in question. A third match with Hughes should motivate the Hawaiian to return to championship form.
The jump in weight does not figure to pose much of an issue for Penn, who will always give Hughes fits with his excellent stand-up and incredible ground game. The longer this one goes the better it is for Hughes, as Penn has long had problems maintaining his form, especially at 170 pounds. Hughes needs to use his revamped stand-up, shooting jabs to counter Penn’s jab -- a weapon he used to neutralize Sean Sherk at UFC 84. Hughes should also mix in leg kicks, an underrated and largely underutilized part of his arsenal, to keep Penn guessing. Penn has never been effective in checking kicks.
In top form, Penn has subtle head movement and MMA-oriented boxing that make him savant-like. Comfortable in the pocket and trading strikes, he has one of the sport’s best chins. Hughes ought to use the first round as a warm-up, eventually working to the clinch and ramming Penn against the cage before taking him down, following the blueprint set forth by Georges St. Pierre at UFC 94. The jury remains out on whether or not Penn’s losses to Edgar signal his best days are behind him.
The Pick: Hughes will have some tough moments and tricky submissions with which to deal, but he will probably get Penn down at some point, keeping top position enough to impress the judges en route to a close and perhaps controversial decision win.