UFC 120 Preview: The Main Card

Dan Hardy vs. Carlos Condit

The importance of the strategic element in fighting can only be enhanced in a bout as evenly matched as the welterweight duel between Hardy and Condit. Both men bring more to the table than they typically get credit for, and their strengths lie in areas other than those the UFC’s marketing machine would have us believe.

A standing encounter would not be a raucous display of go-for-broke brawling as much as it would be Hardy’s composed boxing butting heads with Condit’s more versatile kickboxing. If Condit’s fight with Rory MacDonald was any indication, “The Natural Born Killer” would do well avoiding an even better boxer this time around. A kill-shot artist Hardy is not, but the Team Rough House disciple has more power in his fists than Condit, and his hand-speed advantage appears especially marked.

Although Condit can throw his foes different looks with kicks and knees, he does not do a good job of dictating distance despite having a reach advantage over just about every welterweight. Condit disguises that flaw with strong clinch skills, both in landing strikes and executing takedowns. However, “The Outlaw” navigated the clinch quite well against Mike Swick and showed a sneaky talent for landing crisp, hard punches in close quarters.

More importantly, Hardy has proven a difficult takedown from inside the clinch. He remains vulnerable to level changes, but Condit does not have the sort of explosive shot that usually gives the British standout problems. A battle of wills from inside the clinch does not produce any sort of significant advantage for either man, and it could end up as a variation of Condit’s fight with Martin Kampmann -- a nip-tuck affair that was decided largely in the wrestling battles.

This time, the story will revolve not around who gets top control but around who uses the clinch most effectively. That distinction will likely go to Hardy by way of stopping Condit’s takedowns and beating him to the punch from inside the phone booth. The match will hardly be a dominant performance for him, but would it surprise anyone if Hardy repeats much of what he did against Swick and takes a close but clear-cut decision win.