Thiago Alves file photo: Dave Mandel | Sherdog.com
Make no mistake: This fight is only happening because the UFC wants to eliminate either Alves or Fitch as a legitimate contender for a title shot. As distasteful as the machinations that created this bout may be, it’s still a supreme-quality bout between the 2A and 2B of the welterweight division.
Fitch enters the fight with a four-year-old win over Alves that really has no meaning as far as prognosticating the rematch. In the years since that loss, Alves’ takedown defense has improved to the point that he was able to no-sell Josh Koscheck’s double-leg and batter him for 15 minutes solid. However, Fitch poses an entirely different challenge than Koscheck.
One of the few “grinders” to make their way to MMA, Fitch doesn’t barrel anyone over with supersonic shots or hit sky-high throws. Instead, he bulls his way into the clinch and puts every ounce of his ginormous frame to work. It’s a strategy that leaves his opponents stifled but doesn’t lend itself to high-level offense. Often it also leaves Fitch running on fumes from the physical exertion of manhandling monster athletes.
Enacting that strategy against Alves is a two-fold problem since Alves excels at controlling distance and can land with fight-ending power from any range. While Fitch has taken pains to improve his striking and do a better job of setting up his takedowns, his overall lack of speed remains a glaring vulnerability. Being so slow of fist and foot makes Fitch an easy mark for counter-strikes, a fact that was painfully brought to life in his doomed title bout with Georges St. Pierre.
Tough as Fitch may be, he’ll get aced in exchanges by Alves’ vastly superior boxing and would undoubtedly end up hobbled by leg kicks. Although Alves was hesitant to use his leg kicks against St. Pierre, that mostly stemmed from St. Pierre’s transitional wrestling ability, which is something Fitch does not have. It takes more than a deep single leg to get Alves down, and Fitch is used to simply digging in on his takedown attempts and forcing fights to the floor.
For all the warts in Fitch’s game, however, he’s undeniably effective. It’s entirely possible that he gets Alves down. The rub is that if Fitch couldn’t finish Ben Saunders, he’s not going to finish Alves unless he busts out a one-in-a-million moment of offense. That lack of offensive dynamism and his cardio-sapping style makes the second half of fights especially difficult for him.
Getting into a war of attrition with Alves just isn’t a good idea, and the only fighters Fitch ever totally shuts down are ones who can’t get past his wrestling. Take for example his fight with Mike Pierce, which saw him dominate up until the very end when Pierce cracked him. Besides being far more dangerous than Pierce, Alves has the conditioning to keep his pace for the full 15 minutes as well as the defensive wrestling to impose his pace on Fitch.
Odds are this fight does come down to the last round. There is no reason to think an exhausted Fitch will have the juice to hold Alves down in the stretch. If anything, a more competitive version of Alves’ fight with Koscheck is likely what we’ll end up with. Just as in that fight, Alves’ defensive wrestling and debilitating leg kicks will win the day come crunch time.