UFC 113 Preview: The Main Card

Josh Koscheck vs. Paul Daley

The Breakdown: Normally a title eliminator match is good enough on its own, but Koscheck and Daley have upped the ante with a run of WWE-worthy trash talk. It’s not every day you hear someone hearken back to the days of Fraggle Rock for some original putdowns, and for that alone Daley deserves dap. How exactly Koscheck chooses to seek his retribution will be the true measure of whether Daley’s mental warfare was worth the time.

Like many converted wrestlers who discover the joy of knocking people senseless, Koscheck has an ongoing love affair with his boxing. That’s understandable considering he hits harder than a cruise missile. It stops being understandable, however, when Koscheck ignores his spectacular wrestling skills. An atomic overhand right won’t impress Daley much and will only leave Koscheck open for Daley’s trademark right cross, left hook combination.

The real difference between these two on the feet is Daley’s ability to piece together combinations and work them effectively from different distances. Koscheck needs nearly half the cage just to wind up on a single overhand right. Daley showed in his fight with Dustin Hazelett that he can uncork a lights-out two piece with a fist in his face. Belaboring the difference in striking ability, though, ignores the real X-factor in this fight -- Koscheck’s supersonic shot.

There are a handful of human beings on this planet capable of stopping Koscheck’s takedowns. Daley isn’t one of them. Long known for being a somewhat one-dimensional striker, Daley seems to lack the wrestling knowledge to defend takedowns correctly, as he often tries to simply sprawl away from leg attacks without using under or overhooks correctly to manipulate his opponent’s momentum. Where Daley’s substandard grappling IQ really becomes obvious, though, is on the mat. He tends to give up position trying to create scrambles instead of staying patient and either cage-walking back to the feet or controlling his opponent’s head while shrimping to create space.

Those are basic techniques that any mixed martial artist needs to know, especially one who makes his living on the feet. While Koscheck has gotten himself knocked out before -- see: Thiago, Paulo -- in his fight with Anthony Johnson he showed the maturity to use his wrestling once it became obvious that trading strikes with Megatron Johnson was more dangerous than a stroll through Darfur. Contrary to popular belief, Daley isn’t some miniature Wanderlei Silva who comes to the cage frothing at the mouth, which could be a godsend or a curse in this fight.

Koscheck rarely comes out shooting double legs from the opening bell. Daley will likely have a chance to work his game early on, but if he doesn’t pull the trigger fast enough, he may not get the chance to again. The flip side of the coin is that if Koscheck gets comfortable on the feet, he’ll be digging his own grave and hiring Daley to spread dirt over the top of it. This will probably be an easy fight one way or another. Who gets that easy fight will depend almost entirely on how Koscheck chooses to approach it.

The Bottom Line: When Koscheck fights smart, it’s easy to see why he has been in title contention for so long. Daley doesn’t have the tools to contend with that version of Koscheck, but he can certainly starch the zombie Koscheck that mindlessly tried to outbox Thiago Alves. Considering how long Koscheck has been angling for a title shot, it would be hard to imagine him throwing it all away. He’ll get the win.