UFC 112 Preview: The Main Card

B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar

The Breakdown: It’s hard not to like Frankie Edgar. He’s an exciting young fighter with a plethora of refined skills and the kind of pace that would make Lionel Messi blush. Besides being better suited to the featherweight class, there isn’t much ill you can speak of Edgar, which only serves to remind MMA fans the world over of just how good incumbent lightweight champion B.J. Penn really is.

Against any other lightweight in the world, Edgar is, at absolute worst, a slight underdog. Against Penn, he is getting 6-1 on many sportsbooks and with good reason. For starters, Edgar’s wrestling is not so good that he can be expected to penetrate Penn’s gyroscopic takedown defense. Even if Edgar did get him down, he’d be on the mat with arguably the most adroit grappler this sport has ever seen. Never mind the distinct possibility of Penn taking Edgar down, which has proven to be an absolute death sentence for anyone unlucky enough to find themselves in that position. It does bear noting, however, that Penn has been content to wear opponents down on the feet lately, and that may be the one glimmering beacon of hope Edgar has in this fight.

That’s not to say that Edgar can beat Penn standing. It just means he has a significantly better chance of doing so there than on the mat. There is a lot to like about Edgar’s striking: His movement is fluid and intelligent, his combinations are crisp and he knows how to roll with punches in the pocket, which is a true rarity in MMA. The other weapon he has that he absolutely must use are his leg kicks since Penn employs a conventional, flat-footed boxing stance that makes him vulnerable to attacks on the lead leg.

Of course Penn is also an incredible counterpuncher and has shown time and time again the ability to quickly analyze his opponent’s rhythm and timing. It’s why Penn is so consistently able to crack opponents without taking any significant return fire, a frustrating cycle for his opponents who typically end up completely unsure of how to even begin to approach fighting him. If Edgar is to have any chance in this fight, he can’t make the mistake of predictability and he happens to be fighting someone who makes everyone look predictable.

The Bottom Line: Of all the fighters to challenge for Penn’s crown, Edgar has the best chance of actually being competitive. With that said, he most likely won’t be. Penn’s punching power and takedown defense put Edgar at a key disadvantage in areas he is accustomed to dominating. It will be more of the same from Penn, as he dismantles Edgar on the feet for a few rounds before punctuating his dominance with a takedown and a rear-naked choke.