UFC 100 Preview: The Main Card

UFC Heavyweight Championship
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

The Breakdown: The most hotly anticipated rematch in the game today finally comes to fruition, as Lesnar looks to avenge his submission loss to Mir at UFC 81 and simultaneously complete his improbable run to the UFC’s undisputed heavyweight championship. Not much has changed since the first dustup; Lesnar’s still built like a hybrid of Alexander Karelin and Megatron, while Mir relies on his submission savvy and surprising striking. This bout really hinges on what Lesnar will do with his vastly superior wrestling. If Lesnar’s brain is as powerful as his hyperactive mouth, he will use that pedigree to keep this bout from turning into a grappling meet.

For all of Lesnar’s physical dominance and pure talent, he still botched a basic kneebar defense in his bout with Mir, and that suspect submission defense remains a liability until proven otherwise. While this fight is a coin flip on the mat -- it would come down to Lesnar’s adrenaline-injected ground-and-pound and Mir’s submission game -- Lesnar’s speed and strength makes him the far more dangerous striker. If Lesnar has the sense to turn this into a kickboxing match, Mir will be stuck trying to survive the onslaught while searching for a takedown. Odds are Lesnar’s fist will find Mir’s gray matter long before Mir ever finds that takedown.

The X Factor: Come fight time, Lesnar will be a 280-some-odd-pound block of muscle, and one has to wonder how long his cardio can fuel all that mass against a live opponent. It’s one thing to slap around a fringe contender like Heath Herring for three rounds and quite another to do the same against a top-tier contender. At this point, Lesnar is still learning on the fly, and he has not yet figured out how to translate all his physical talent in a sport that requires so much technical acumen. The early going will be rough for Mir, but if he can hold his own and force Lesnar to work for everything he gets, there’s no easier submission scalp than a gassed-out wrestler.

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The Bottom Line: Watching Lesnar’s fight with Randy Couture at UFC 91, you see a fighter starting to make the transition from genetic sideshow to trained athlete. That does not bode well for Mir. The possibility of Lesnar losing his composure and going for a bull rush takedown will always be there, but there’s no guarantee Mir could cinch a submission before getting steamrolled. Regardless, expect Lesnar to keep this fight standing and send Mir to bed without his dinner in short order.