Ryan Bader vs. Vinicius Magalhaes
Height/Weight: 6’2/205 lbs.
Age: 25
Hometown: Reno, Nev.
Fighting out of: Tempe, Ariz.
Record: 7-0
The stakes: If “The Ultimate Fighter” has taught us anything, it’s that sure-fire wrestling prospects have all the same faults as fighters from other backgrounds. Season seven drove that notion home, as CB Dollaway went from golden goose to ugly duckling after dropping two bouts to MMA neophyte Amir Sadollah.
Much like Dolloway, Bader entered this season as one of the favorites. While he reached the final in legitimate fashion, he has shown some limitations in terms of his conditioning, and his overall game remains unpolished. A dominant showing against Magalhaes would go a long way towards washing out any doubts about Bader and opening up fans to the idea that he can handle the UFC’s stacked light heavyweight roster.
The breakdown: The rub in being a great wrestler is that anytime you face a jiu-jitsu specialist, years of learned wrestling instincts suddenly become your greatest enemy. While Magalhaes lacks in other areas, his jiu-jitsu makes him a terror on the mat, and Bader does not have the game to survive such a slew of slick submissions.
What Bader can do is use his wrestling in reverse to keep this bout standing, as Magalhaes remains gunshy on his feet and typically reverts to feebly pulling guard when his shopworn takedowns fail him. While Bader’s hardly Chuck Norris standing, he’s heavy handed, and that may be all he needs against Magalhaes.
Magalhaes Scouting Report
Height/Weight: 6’3/205 lbs.
Age: 24
Hometown: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Fighting out of: Murrieta, Calif.
Record: 2-2 (1 NC)
The stakes: A newcomer to the light heavyweight division, Magalhaes found mixed success as a heavyweight early on in his career, but his drop in weight has coincided with an altogether unexpected run on “The Ultimate Fighter.” However, much like fellow finalist Phillipe Nover, Magalhaes needs this win to legitimize his run, lest he go the way of fellow unexpected finalists like Brad Imes or Luke Cummo.
I hate to think of the nicknames headed Magalhaes’ way if he heads down that route, but he does have the game to take out Bader and position himself as one of the light heavyweight division’s more dangerous grapplers. As always, it’s feast or famine when it gets down to the finals.
The breakdown: This could not be simpler for Magalhaes. Get Bader on the mat and win. Do just about anything else and lose. That scenario played itself out in Magalhaes’ semi-final bout with Krzysztof Soszynski, as he took plenty of damage on the feet before enticing Soszynski to the mat by pulling guard and subsequently securing a submission.
Magalhaes would do well to skip the striking and jump straight to the guard pulling, as Joey Porter has better odds of showing some verbal discretion than Magalhaes does of taking down Bader. If Magalhaes can use Bader’s own instincts against him, he could easily tie Bader into a knot, wrap him around a box and place him under the Christmas tree with a heartfelt note.
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The bottom line: This is a tough call, and it really depends on Bader’s smarts. If he has the brains to keep himself from following Magalhaes to the mat, he should have no problems with the gangly Brazilian grappling ace. Should Bader’s brain have a Tony-Romo-in-the-fourth-quarter moment, we’ll get ourselves a clip to add to the MMA blooper reel.
In the name of defying the stereotype of MMA fighters as overgrown brain-dead goons, I’ll take Bader via knockout late in the first round.