The Doggy Bag: Competition and Promotion

I think the changes in the lineups for UFC 104 and 106 are exactly what the UFC needed to do to continue to develop the heavyweight division in a more sustainable fashion. As much as the Shane Carwin-Cain Velasquez fight intrigued me, it would mostly likely have ended up with Velasquez coming out on top, and moving on to be soundly defeated by Brock Lesnar. I just don't believe Cain is ready for Brock yet, and if the fight is completely one-sided in Lesnar's favor, as it would likely be, it could seriously damage Cain's status as a blue-chip prospect in the eyes of a casual fan.

Carwin on the other hand is older, and is at the peak of his hype right now, and could easily be derailed by a potential loss to Cain. This is the perfect time for him to prove himself, and if he can't now, it's probably too late for him. Plus the Velasquez-Rothwell bout is probably the best matchup possible both for a debut for Rothwell, and the development of Cain as a fighter. All around, I think it's a win-win for Zuffa, the fighters, and the fans.
-- Ryan Hart

Jordan Breen, columnist and radio host: I'm largely in agreement with you. Zuffa's decision to revamp their heavyweight matchmaking isn't perfect, but I'm not sure that it could be.

The UFC model calls for strong champions, and the development of parallel challengers. Title elimination bouts like the forthcoming Martin Kampmann vs. Mike Swick fight seldom make sense for Zuffa, who don't want to knock potential title challengers off the ladder as they want a competitively and promotionally viable contender for each champ every four months or so. This is especially true at heavyweight, where the dearth of talent in general and the very small crop of intriguing up-and-comers means that eliminating one successful heavyweight prospect from the title chase is a horrible idea.

So, they need a title challenger for Lesnar, while simultaneously they want to create interesting match-ups to promote future title challengers and foster the development of their prospects. The Carwin-Lesnar and Velasquez-Rothwell match-ups strike the best balance between all those priorities.

Like you, I think Velasquez would've prevailed over Carwin, squandering a title challenger. While I've got significant doubts about Carwin -- his competition (Gonzaga aside) has been absolutely abysmal and I'm flabbergasted that people have no cardio questions about a man the size of a house who has only fought past two minutes once -- his size, wrestling background and punching power offer a different look than Lesnar's other challengers. Lesnar was at his most mortal against an aged and rusty Randy Couture because of his wrestling skills, and even as a collegiate wrestler, Lesnar often wore down when he couldn't work his power double leg early on opponents. I fully expect an improving Lesnar to get the better of Carwin, but the technical questions about both fighters as well as the concept of Lesnar fighting someone his own physical size should be sellable.

And, having just turned 27, and I believe in general having more MMA upside, it makes more sense for Zuffa to keep giving Velasquez incremental steps up to rouse technical improvement. I think the Kongo bout was a great fight for him in terms of progress, as he learned to deal with taking serious damage, showed a strong positional game, and demonstrated that as a legitimate heavyweight, he can keep a dominant 15-minute workrate.

Rothwell is a great step up as he's well-rounded, especially by heavyweight standards, he can take enormous amounts of punishment, and will force Velasquez to work more actively from all positions including top control, whereas Kongo could only threaten by attempting to benchpress Velasquez off of him from the bottom. Win or lose, Zuffa gets a title contender -- and win or lose -- I think Velasquez is a richer fighter for the experience, which is what developing prospects is all about.

So, it may not be a "perfect" scenario for the UFC heavyweight division, but it does go to show that more often than not, Zuffa tends to arrive at the decision that best balances competition and promotion.