Sarah Kaufman (right): Dave Mandel | Sherdog.com
The curious matchmaking in Strikeforce’s female divisions will hit a crescendo when Coenen, who was battered by 145-pound champion Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos 10 months ago, enters the cage to take on reigning 135-pound titleholder Kaufman. Odd as the decision making behind this fight may be, it’s still a quality scrap in one of the better divisions in all of women’s MMA.
The quality of this scrap depends largely on whether or not Coenen can draw Kaufman into the sort of grappling battle that favors her -- that means more than just grounding Kaufman. If Coenen is forced to pull guard or in general ends up working off her back, she’s going to lose in uninspired fashion.
Some of the less than exciting matches of Kaufman’s career have created the perception that she’s some one-note striker who can stuff takedowns all night long. This blatantly ignores the versatility in the undefeated Canadian’s game; chiefly her ability to work from top control while smothering the submission attempts of her opponents and answering with measured ground-and-pound.
It may not sound like the most entertaining way to win a fight, but it adds an undeniably effective second dimension to Kaufman’s style. Trying to get Kaufman on the floor against her will is hard enough, but Coenen has to find a way to overcome her own sub-standard wrestling. That, more than anything, is what puts this fight beyond reach for her.
It’s really just that simple for the Dutch submission specialist. She needs to score takedowns to win this fight and Kaufman knows that as well. In a sport as dynamic as MMA, predictability only works if your skills are so finely honed to a specific purpose that no one can come up with an effective counter to them. Coenen is a fine grappler and much tougher than she gets credit for, but that’s not going to get the job done against Kaufman.
There is a decent chance this fight degenerates into a game of Kaufman stuffing takedowns and landing jabs. Despite this, she’ll throw another quality win on the pile by dragging Coenen to the woodshed.