Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
The Breakdown: MMA’s heavyweight hype machine can be a fickle beast, and Arlovski and Silva are familiar with the unforgiving nature of great expectations. The story of Arlovski’s career revolves around his all-universe talent and questionable chin. Silva’s ginormous frame has, to this point, dwarfed his actual skills.
Silva has proven far from an imposing shell devoid of talent, and his size requires a great deal more athleticism and coordination to execute even basic techniques. Arlovski, on the other hand, moves like a fluid middleweight and retains all the power of a heavily bearded Belarusian. The ability to move around and rip off quick combinations will be Arlovski’s greatest advantage in this fight, as Silva’s game works best from inside the pocket.
However, Arlovski often makes the mistake of standing his ground and getting into exchanges his chin cannot survive. Taking advantage of those moments, as well as pressing Arlovski against the cage and scoring takedowns, needs to be the backbone of Silva’s game plan. Expecting him to adopt a more nuanced approach after years of dependence on his hulking frame and straightforward style might prove overly optimistic.
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The Bottom Line: As with every Arlovski fight, the analysis and conjecture goes out the window the second he gets hit clean. Of course, all the doomsday prophecies about Arlovski’s anti-chin ignore the fact that he has proven himself a better all-around fighter than Silva. Leg kicks and one-twos will be the story of this fight, as Arlovski field dresses his giant quarry en route to a second-round technical knockout.