Machida
Striking: 3.5
Grappling: 3.0
Submissions: 3.5
Experience: 3.0
Total: 3.3
Striking: 3.0
Grappling: 3.5
Submissions: 3.5
Experience: 2.0
Total: 3.0
With his karate background, Machida definitely has the edge in stand-up. Silva might pack the bigger punch, as his impressive knockout ratio reveals -- 10 of his 13 wins have come by way of knockout or technical knockout. And he will certainly have put in hours and hours with ATT’s boxing coach, Howard Davis Jr., but he’s had the tendency to leave himself open while striking in the past, which may cause problems against Machida’s precise strikes.
In the grappling department, Silva has a slight edge. He may not do anything groundbreaking, but Machida’s BJJ, even though he’s a black belt, remains pedestrian. Machida has solid top control but was unable to hold down more mobile opponents, like B.J. Penn. His ability to fight effectively off his back has also come into question, as he has rarely had to do so. What’s more, Machida was in big trouble in his last fight, when Tito Ortiz -- who has never had the reputation as a submission specialist -- locked him in a third-round triangle choke at UFC 84.
On the other hand, Machida owns a clear experience advantage. He has been around twice as long as Silva, fighting all around the world in MMA-rich countries such as Japan, Brazil and the United States. He’s also comfortable fighting in front of big crowds, as he made his debut at the 55,000-seat Tokyo Dome and has also competed at the 30,000-plus-seat Kobe Wing Stadium in Kobe, Japan.
The Stakes
From a sporting perspective, a bout between two undefeated fighters who have gone 4-0 and 5-0 in the UFC, respectively, should be an automatic title eliminator. However, that’s not how Zuffa’s promotional model works. At this time, it appears that both Quinton Jackson -- should he beat Keith Jardine at UFC 96 in March -- and Chuck Liddell -- should he defeat Rua at UFC 97 in April -- are ahead of the Machida/Silva victor in the line of title contenders.
Still, the winner of Saturday’s scrap can, in Machida’s case, consolidate his place in the world rankings behind promotional favorites Forrest Griffin and Liddell or, in Silva’s case, make a gigantic jump up the light heavyweight ladder. In fact, a win over the hyped Machida could help the ATT prospect leapfrog Jardine, former teammate Wanderlei Silva and perhaps even the once untouchable Liddell in the 205-pound division.
The Prediction
Both contenders will come into this fight in great shape, having enjoyed strong training camps -- Machida with UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva and the Nogueira brothers, Silva with Jorge Santiago, Wilson Gouveia and Marcus "Conan" Silveira at ATT. Flawless records mean Machida and Silva will enter the cage brimming with confidence.
Two obvious scenarios exist for how this fight will play out. First, it’s likely we’ll see a lot of clinching and exchanged knee strikes on the cage. Second, Machida will once again be on his bicycle, evading the wild attacks of the aggressive Silva. The ATT product will have to take a page out of Kazuhiro Nakamura’s book if he wants this fight on the ground, as conventional takedowns appear ineffective against Machida.
Machida has the resolve to absorb some of his opponent’s big bombs, so Silva’s key to victory is the ground. Silva appears to be the bigger and stronger of the two, but, despite his youth, he’s more likely to gas due to the big muscles he carries around.
As previously mentioned, Machida’s simply too cerebral to finish off opponents who have taken a real beating. As a result, we’re likely to see another, uglier-than-expected unanimous decision from “The Dragon.”