Preview: UFC on Fox 30 ‘Alvarez vs. Poirier 2’

Featherweights
Jose Aldo (26-4) vs. Jeremy Stephens (28-14)
Odds: Aldo (-135), Stephens (+115)

It's been a lost few years for Aldo.

Aldo burst onto the scene as a whirlwind of violence back in the days of World Extreme Cagefighting, earning its featherweight title in quick and brutal fashion; but once he came over to the UFC, he never quite captured the imagination of the public despite his dominance. Part of that was a style change into a defensive counter-striker, and the rest was some combination of inactivity, a prickly relationship with UFC management and the language barrier; for all the concerns about Aldo's drawing power, he was always a star in his native Brazil.

By late 2014, there was hope things turned the corner, as Aldo was on a crash course with Conor McGregor. McGregor's presence made the fight a win-win situation for Aldo, as the Irishman would build up a big-money fight, and the bout itself figured to be a war where both men could come out of it with moral victories. Instead, things went as poorly as possible for Aldo. First, he was forced to pull out of the McGregor fight at UFC 189 due to a rib injury, which started a narrative that Aldo was frightened of McGregor. And once the contest played out at UFC 194, it happened as if McGregor had willed his dreams -- or Aldo's nightmares -- into existence. McGregor blasted him on the first exchange of the fight, and Aldo's decade-long undefeated streak was over in just 13 seconds.

Both Aldo and the featherweight division spent the next year in limbo; McGregor left 145 to move up to lightweight, but never relinquished the belt, leaving Aldo screaming into the void for a rematch where the former champion could regain part of his lost legacy. Aldo eventually won an interim title and was subsequently promoted to full-time champ, and at UFC 212, the division was finally ready to get going again, with Aldo defending against Max Holloway. This time, rather than a sudden defeat, Aldo experienced a brutal changing of the guard; Aldo's slow, disincentivizing style was completely broken by Holloway, who was fast, aggressive and fearless enough to up the pace until Aldo could no longer keep up. A rematch at UFC 218 yielded the same result, so now Aldo finds himself at a crossroads as he enters the first non-title fight of his UFC career: is he now simply the second-best featherweight in the world, or is this his late-career slide to the middle of the pack?

Stephens looks to unseat Aldo here, which would make him a legitimate title contender for the first time in his UFC career. Stephens owns the record for most UFC losses, which sums it up; most of Stephens' tenure has seen him be a fun journeyman, stringing together enough wins to keep his place on the roster. For a good while, Stephens was reliable for three fun rounds and occasional moments of brutality; he's always been a bit overrated as a knockout threat, but he could pull off vicious finishes like his 2008 uppercut of Rafael dos Anjos. By 2012, a three-fight losing streak suggested Stephens had plateaued, but after cutting down to featherweight, Stephens was able to find new life, reeling off some wins before settling in as a top-10 gatekeeper. A 2017 loss to Renato Carneiro briefly threatened that status, as Stephens wound up being flummoxed by Moicano's movement-heavy striking, forcing Stephens to chase the Brazilian prospect with little success. But Stephens has rebounded with some surprisingly measured performances, picking Gilbert Melendez apart with leg kicks before winning back-to-back main events over Doo Ho Choi and Josh Emmett. Similar to Dustin Poirier in the main event, Stephens is in the best mental form of his career, but he has to take out an all-time great in order to find his way into the title picture.

Stephens is on an excellent run, but this bout is still primarily a referendum on Aldo. Aldo's fights come down to his ability to stay defensive and keep his opponents at bay with powerful counters, slowing the pace so Aldo can keep that defensive machine going. But Holloway was the perfect candidate to overwhelm that machine; he was durable and fearless enough to exchange at a quicker and quicker pace until that machine broke.

Stephens has the durability part of that equation down, but doesn't appear to have the rest; his fearlessness often takes the form of unchecked aggression, which sometimes leaves him unsuccessfully chasing a knockout. Stephens also doesn't fight at the pace Holloway does, unless he starts getting wild; intelligence and aggression are on opposite sides of the scale for Stephens, and even in his recent career-best form, one usually comes at the expense of the other. If Stephens has the performance of his career, he could do both at the same time, but unless Aldo's defenses and reflexes have taken another step downward, this should be an Aldo victory, even if it would've been more of a blowout a few years ago. My pick is Aldo via decision.

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