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Featherweights

Dennis Bermudez (16-6) vs. Darren Elkins (22-5)

THE MATCHUP: This is a fascinating crossroad fight between two of the featherweight division’s most compelling characters. Elkins has spent most of his career as a gatekeeper, but a four-fight winning streak has him knocking at the door to the elite. Bermudez, on the other hand, has always teemed with athletic talent, but a series of dramatic losses always seems to hold him back. Both men feel ready to storm the gate and prove that they can do more than test up-and-comers.

Elkins may have earned the most impressive win of his career in his last fight, as he took on blue-chip prospect Mirsad Bektic, a hyper-athletic wrestler with killer striking and devastating ground-and-pound. Elkins took everything Bektic had in the first two rounds, keeping himself in the fight while struggling to make any headway against the young bull. In the third, Elkins finally found his opportunity, trapping a tired Bektic against the cage and hammering him into unconsciousness. It was a sensational comeback and one which proves that Elkins is never out of a fight. How much did it cost him? Sometimes a brutal war is the final gem in a journeyman’s rusty crown, and some men never recover from the trial. If Elkins is sluggish or notably more fragile than before, then Bermudez will be plenty capable of putting him away. Even excepting the Bektic fight, Elkins has been hurt and finished before.

Even if Elkins looks like his usual self, Bermudez may be only a slightly easier test than Bektic. Bermudez has notable defensive flaws. Crucially, he struggles to attack and maintain defensive responsibility at the same time, both on the feet and on the ground. Bermudez is at his best putting together punch-kick combinations and high-amplitude takedowns, but he always exposes himself when he does so. This is not, however, an easy path to victory for Elkins. Though “The Damage” has better striking than he is usually credited with, his boxing is slow and awkward; and his hands are not heavy enough to make up the difference. Elkins needs to outgrapple his foes to defeat them, and that is where Bermudez poses problems. He boasts a remarkable 91 percent rate of takedown defense and usually manages to turn wrestling exchanges to his advantage. Unlike past Elkins opponents, Bermudez rarely has trouble with his gas tank.

Nonetheless, the holes in Bermudez’s striking may be enough for Elkins to force his game. As a wrestler and grappler, few featherweights can compete with Elkins. If put on his back, Elkins stays active, threatening chokes as he sweeps and reshoots his way to a dominant position. On top, Elkins is positively smothering. With an uncanny strength to his wiry limbs, he holds opponents -- in half guard, against the fence, buried under a sprawl -- and thrives in the struggle. Those long, straining exchanges in the clinch tax most fighters, but Elkins pushes and grinds away like a machine, unbreakable so long as he remains conscious. Elkins may struggle to catch up at range, but Bermudez has a habit of falling into his opponent’s wheelhouse. If he tried to wrestle with Tatsuya Kawajiri, he will try to wrestle with Elkins. That is where Elkins starts laying the foundations for a gutsy win.

THE ODDS: Bermudez (-190), Elkins (+150)

THE PICK: All of the stuff you hear about blue-collar fighters and their blue-collar resilience can get a little tiresome, but Elkins, a Local 597 union pipefitter, embodies the old stereotype perfectly. He is as workmanlike as they come, and that is his greatest strength. Elkins accepts that pain is part of the job and embraces it. While he is too awkward and slow to keep up with them in exchanges, “The Damage” positively excels in the positions that powerful athletes hate most. He will stall out on a takedown, end up leaning on his opponent against the fence and chip away with a variety of strikes, some of them surprisingly impactful. If forced to scramble, Elkins will threaten Bermudez with submissions. Whatever the position, Elkins is utterly exhausting when he gets his fight. He will have a solid path to victory so long as he can convince Bermudez to grapple. The pick is Elkins by third-round submission.

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